The prospect of a government shutdown appears increasingly likely, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy affirming his refusal to consider Senate legislation aimed at preventing it. House Republicans have struggled to coalesce around an alternative, creating a deadlock in Congress just days before a potentially disruptive federal shutdown. Such an event would result in the cessation of paychecks for roughly 2 million federal government employees, including 2 million active-duty military personnel and reservists. It would also lead to the furlough of numerous workers and the reduction of government services.
Despite the looming deadline, the House and Senate are pursuing divergent strategies to avert these repercussions. The Senate is working towards the passage of a bipartisan measure intended to fund the government until November 17, allowing for ongoing negotiations. Additionally, the Senate bill allocates $6 billion for Ukraine and $6 billion for US disaster relief.
In contrast, the House has taken up four of the twelve annual spending bills that fund federal agencies. The House managed to pass three of these bills, covering the Department of Defense, the Department of Homeland Security, and the State Department. However, the fourth bill, which aimed to fund federal agricultural programs, was unsuccessful.
The discord is evident in the House, with over half of House Republicans voting against providing Ukraine with $300 million in military aid, despite bipartisan approval by a vote of 311-117. While these appropriations bills in the House won't avert a government shutdown, party leadership hopes that progress in this area will garner enough Republican support for a House-constructed continuing resolution (CR). This CR would temporarily fund the government and enhance security along the US-Mexico border. However, this is considered a long shot.
In the face of these challenges, McCarthy is striving to formulate a plan that would prevent a shutdown and garner Republican backing. He intends to reveal a Republican stopgap plan, known as a continuing resolution (CR), on Friday. Simultaneously, he is seeking to exert pressure on Senate Democrats to make concessions. Nevertheless, time is dwindling, and some GOP lawmakers are either withholding support for a temporary measure until they see it or contemplating joining Democrats in presenting a bill to prevent a shutdown.
The meeting McCarthy held with Republicans on Thursday morning was marked by signs of tension. A contentious exchange took place between McCarthy and Representative Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who had previously threatened to oust McCarthy from his position. Gaetz confronted the speaker about conservative online influencers being compensated to post negative content about him. McCarthy responded that he wouldn't devote time to such matters. McCarthy's allies left the meeting perturbed by Gaetz's tactics.
With the party's unity wavering, McCarthy is scrambling to prevent a shutdown and retain Republican support. Although he is endeavoring to present a Republican CR, he hasn't signaled his readiness to cooperate with Democrats in passing legislation in the House.
Meanwhile, the White House and the Department of Homeland Security have advised staff to prepare for a shutdown, in which furloughed employees would have four hours on Monday to organize their offices. Some key officials, including commissioned officers, will remain on duty during a shutdown, but military troops and federal workers, including essential personnel like law enforcement officers, air traffic controllers, and Transportation Security Administration officers, will continue reporting for duty. However, their paychecks will be at risk if the shutdown extends beyond October 13, the next scheduled payday. They will eventually receive back pay when the shutdown concludes.
Critical services will be affected, including unanswered taxpayer phone calls to the IRS and the closure of 363 Taxpayer Assistance Centers across the country. While some vital functions of the government will endure, a shutdown will disrupt many operations and services.
As the threat of a shutdown looms, Republicans are concerned about potential blame, particularly in the Senate, where numerous GOP members are aligned with Democrats on a temporary bill. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell emphasized that while he agrees with many House Republicans' objectives, a shutdown would fail to achieve any of them. McConnell asserted that it would only impede progress on important issues. Nonetheless, Senate Republicans spent a considerable portion of the day devising a plan to boost funding for border security. In the House, McCarthy's allies are hoping that the specter of a shutdown can assist conservatives in their efforts to curtail federal spending and address illegal immigration at the US-Mexico border.
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