Azerbaijan initiated what it termed "anti-terrorist activities" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, asserting its aim to reinstate constitutional order and remove what it alleges are Armenian forces. This move has raised concerns of a potential resurgence of conflict. Armenia and Azerbaijan have already engaged in two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh in the three decades since the Soviet Union, of which both were members, disintegrated. Here is a comprehensive look at the historical backdrop of the conflict and the latest developments.
Nagorno-Karabakh, referred to as Artsakh by Armenians, is a mountainous region situated at the southern extremity of the Karabakh mountain range, within the borders of Azerbaijan. While it is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, its population of approximately 120,000 is primarily composed of ethnic Armenians. They have established their own governing body, closely aligned with Armenia, although not officially acknowledged by Armenia or any other nation.
Armenians, who adhere to Christianity, assert a long-standing presence in the area, tracing back several centuries before the birth of Christ. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, whose inhabitants are primarily Turkic Muslims, also claims deep historical connections to the region. Over the centuries, Nagorno-Karabakh has been subject to the influence of Persians, Turks, and Russians, and violent conflicts between the two ethnic groups have persisted for more than a century.
During the existence of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh gained the status of an autonomous region within the territory of Azerbaijan.
As the Soviet Union disintegrated, the First Karabakh War (1988-1994) broke out between Armenians and their Azerbaijani neighbours. This conflict resulted in approximately 30,000 casualties and over one million displaced individuals, primarily Azeris who were forced to leave their homes as Armenian forces gained control over Nagorno-Karabakh and substantial portions of seven surrounding districts.
In 2020, after decades of sporadic skirmishes, Azerbaijan launched a military operation that marked the start of the Second Karabakh War. Azerbaijan rapidly breached Armenian defences and achieved a decisive victory in just 44 days, reclaiming the seven districts and approximately one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Military analysts attributed Azerbaijan's success in part to the use of drones acquired from Turkey and Israel. This conflict resulted in at least 6,500 fatalities.
Russia, which maintains a defence treaty with Armenia but also maintains positive relations with Azerbaijan, facilitated a ceasefire. The agreement included the deployment of 1,960 Russian peacekeepers to safeguard the vital "Lachin corridor," the main route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, which was no longer under Armenian control.
Analysts suggest that multiple rounds of negotiations mediated by the European Union, the United States, and Russia have brought Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to a permanent peace treaty than they have been in years, but a final resolution remains elusive. The most contentious issue revolves around the status of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians residing in Karabakh, whose rights and security Armenia insists must be protected. While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia has acknowledged Armenia's recognition of Azerbaijan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Baku expresses doubts about the sincerity of this assertion and accuses Armenia of fostering separatism.
In December 2022, Azerbaijani civilians identifying themselves as environmental activists began blocking the Lachin corridor. In April 2023, Azerbaijan officially established a checkpoint at the corridor, citing the prevention of weapons smuggling as the rationale. This blockade significantly disrupted the flow of people and goods between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, leading the United States to express concern over the "rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation."
This week, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was able to conduct simultaneous humanitarian aid deliveries via the Lachin corridor and an alternate road connecting Karabakh to the Azerbaijani city of Aghdam.
Despite these efforts, tensions have escalated notably in recent weeks, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of amassing troops. Armenia has voiced concerns that Russia's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has diverted its attention away from its role as the guarantor of security in the South Caucasus, as asserted by Moscow itself.
