The British government has put forth a proposal to gradually raise the legal smoking age each year, potentially leading to the elimination of smoking among young people by the year 2040. This move, if enacted into law, would establish some of the world's most stringent smoking regulations and have a significant impact on major tobacco companies' sales.
Under this proposal, the smoking age would increase by one year annually, potentially phasing out smoking among young individuals almost entirely by 2040, as outlined in a briefing document. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, unveiling the plan at the Conservative Party conference, emphasized that a 14-year-old today would never be legally allowed to purchase cigarettes.
Sunak also highlighted the substantial financial burden that smoking places on Britain's healthcare system, estimating it at $20.6 billion per year. Additionally, the government intends to address youth vaping by consulting on potential restrictions on vape flavors and descriptions, as well as exploring regulations related to vape packaging and presentation, according to the briefing paper.
Action on Smoking and Health, an advocacy group, welcomed Sunak's proposals, suggesting that they could accelerate the transition to a time when smoking becomes obsolete. However, the tobacco industry criticized the plan, with the Tobacco Manufacturers Association deeming it a "disproportionate attack" on adults' rights that could fuel the black market trade in tobacco products. Imperial Brands and British American Tobacco, makers of various cigarette brands, expressed concerns about the enforceability of the ban and warned of potential unintended consequences.
To become law, the smoking policy would require approval through a free vote in the UK's parliament, allowing lawmakers to vote independently rather than following party policies. If enacted, the UK would become the first European country to follow in the footsteps of New Zealand, which unveiled a similar plan in the previous year to ban smoking among future generations.
Scholars have noted that raising the legal smoking age has effectively reduced smoking rates among young people worldwide. The proposed ban could affect companies that derive a significant portion of their revenue from British tobacco sales, such as Japan Tobacco, maker of Camel and Benson & Hedges, and Imperial Brands. While the immediate impact is likely to be minimal, analysts suggest that the ban's consequences could gradually become significant over time, given that individuals aged 18-25 represent approximately 10% of Britain's current adult smokers.
In response to the announcement, shares in Imperial Brands fell 3.2% to their lowest level since March 2022, while shares in British American Tobacco, which has a lower exposure to the British cigarette market, declined by 1.2% as of 1357 GMT. There is also a risk that other nations may consider similar measures, as Denmark is already contemplating such a move, and several countries have set targets to reduce smoking rates substantially in the near future.
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