A recent Pentagon report reveals that China has bolstered its nuclear capabilities with an arsenal exceeding 500 nuclear bombs while actively developing advanced Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). This surge in nuclear armament is raising concerns about the stability of global strategic balance.
The report submitted to the U.S. Congress highlights China's extensive nuclear capabilities, forecasting that it will continue modernizing, diversifying, and expanding its nuclear arsenal over the next decade. One significant aspect is the development of novel ICBMs, which are set to enhance China's nuclear-capable missile forces. The Pentagon asserts that this progress will necessitate increased nuclear warhead production, partly due to the integration of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities.
The report suggests that China may be exploring the development of intercontinental-range missile systems armed with conventional warheads. If this development comes to fruition, it would enable China to pose a conventional threat to targets within the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska. The potential deployment of conventionally armed ICBMs could introduce considerable risks to the stability of global strategic dynamics.
The current efforts undertaken by China to modernize its nuclear capabilities significantly surpass those made a decade ago, both in terms of scale and complexity. The nation is increasing the number of its land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms while concurrently investing in infrastructure to facilitate further expansion of its nuclear forces. As of May 2023, the United States estimated that China's operational nuclear warhead stockpile had exceeded 500.
The U.S. Department of Defense projects that China will have an operational nuclear warhead count exceeding 1,000 by 2030. A substantial portion of these warheads is expected to be maintained at higher readiness levels. Moreover, China intends to continue bolstering its nuclear forces until 2035 in accordance with its overarching goal of achieving comprehensive modernization by that year. This goal plays a pivotal role in Chinese President Xi Jinping's vision of a "world-class" military by 2049.
The report also suggests that China is likely to use its new fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities to produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons program, despite publicly stating that these technologies are primarily intended for peaceful applications.
Furthermore, China is believed to have completed the construction of three new solid-propellant silo fields in 2022, consisting of at least 300 new ICBM silos. The country has loaded some ICBMs into these silos, rendering them capable of hosting both DF-31 and DF-41 class ICBMs. This initiative, along with the expansion of China's liquid-propellant silo force, aims to elevate the readiness of its nuclear force during peacetime by transitioning to a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture, as explained by the Pentagon.
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