Explained: The tense geopolitics of the Middle East and the Israel-Palestine conflict


The Israel-Palestine conflict, a deeply intricate and longstanding geopolitical quagmire, has roots that stretch back over a century. A core focal point within this multifaceted dispute revolves around the gradual erosion of Palestinian territory. In this comprehensive examination, we aim to explore this intricate historical and geographical perspective, shedding light on its complexity.

Recent developments have thrust the Israel-Palestine conflict back into the global spotlight, exacerbated by the most severe attack Tel Aviv has experienced since its establishment, effectively transforming the Gaza Strip into a war-torn battleground.

On a fateful day, October 7, coinciding with the observance of Simchat Torah, a significant Jewish festival, Hamas orchestrated an audacious assault on Israeli soil. This assault transcended conventional boundaries, breaching Israeli territory through land, water, and airspace, encompassing a relentless onslaught of rocket attacks, ground offensives, and the taking of hostages, including both Israeli citizens and foreign nationals.

The recent attack evoked unsettling parallels with the Yom Kippur War, an iconic conflict that unfolded in October 1973. During this period, a coalition of Arab nations launched a surprise offensive against Israel, fueled by the ambition to regain territories lost in the Six-Day War of 1967. Remarkably, the latest Hamas attack coincided with this historically significant date, eliciting haunting memories and underscoring the gravity of the situation.

The Israeli defense apparatus, renowned for its 'Iron Dome System,' which has consistently intercepted over 90 percent of incoming rockets, suddenly found itself overwhelmed. A deluge of rockets rained from the skies, and even the Mediterranean Sea, traditionally considered a natural barrier, ceased to provide security. Hamas boldly defied the enduring naval blockade, successfully infiltrating Israeli shores.

However, the most astonishing facet of Hamas's strategy was their audacious foray into the airspace. Hamas militants took to the skies, utilizing powered hang-gliders to bypass Israeli air defenses and infiltrate Israel, culminating in a rapid assault that incurred significant casualties.

The aftermath of this conflict is already manifesting in the loss and devastation within Gaza, as Israeli airstrikes continue to target Hamas positions, signaling the commencement of a full-fledged conflict. Yet, the true impact of such a war is most acutely felt by civilians, who often bear the brunt of these hostilities.

Within Gaza, homes have been pulverized, essential resources such as food, water, and electricity are in scarce supply, and borders remain tightly shut. The Palestinian populace in Gaza finds themselves trapped in dire circumstances with nowhere to escape.

The longstanding bloodshed between Israelis and Palestinians traces its roots back in history, with rising tensions in the West Bank hinting at an impending storm.

A historical cartographic perspective of the Israel-Palestine conflict takes us on a journey through key milestones:

Before World War I, the region recognized as Palestine had been under Ottoman rule for several centuries. After the war, this territory came under British control as a result of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. During the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the Zionist movement gained momentum, advocating for the establishment of a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

The United Nations proposed a partition plan in 1947, seeking to divide Palestine into Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem designated as an international city. Jewish leaders embraced this plan, while Arab leaders vehemently rejected it.

In 1948, the State of Israel was declared, leading to immediate invasions by neighboring Arab countries. This war concluded in 1949 with the signing of an Armistice Agreement, expanding Israel's territory beyond the UN's proposed borders. This period witnessed the Nakba, in which hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were either forced to flee their homes or were expelled during the conflict.

In 1967, Israel preemptively initiated hostilities with Egypt, resulting in the Six-Day War, involving Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. This war led to Israel capturing the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt, the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Golan Heights from Syria. The Sinai was later returned to Egypt in 1982 following the Camp David Accords.

The 1990s saw the Oslo Accords, a series of agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). These agreements culminated in the creation of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the formal recognition of Israel by the PLO. However, crucial final status issues such as borders, refugee matters, and the status of Jerusalem remained unresolved.

Subsequently, Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005 did not alleviate the region's complexities, as the UN still deems Gaza to be under Israeli occupation due to Israel's control over crucial resources, including food, electricity, water, and human movement.

Over the years, the region has experienced numerous clashes, intifadas (uprisings), and military operations involving Hamas and Israel.

In the West Bank, where the Palestinian National Authority, governed by Mahmoud Abbas, holds sway, the contentious issue of Israeli settlements has emerged. These settlements are widely considered illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this viewpoint. The proliferation of these settlements has created a patchwork of territories in the West Bank, complicating the establishment of a contiguous Palestinian state.

The shifting territorial dynamics since 1948 have significantly shaped contemporary deliberations surrounding potential solutions. Yet, the Israel-Palestine conflict endures.

Fast-forwarding to the present, Israel stands as a UN-recognized state, while Palestinians continue to aspire to establish their own nation, with the pursuit of a two-state solution representing a core objective.

The year 2023 has witnessed escalating tensions. In February, Israel's approval of the legalization of nine illegal settler outposts spurred international opposition, even from the United States. According to Peace Now, 38 percent of the

 area encompassing these illegal West Bank outposts remains undetermined in terms of its status.

Moreover, a series of raids and bombings, even within Palestinian refugee camps, have exacerbated the situation, adding to the volatility.

Tensions reached a boiling point around the Al-Aqsa compound, marked by frequent violent confrontations and actions taken against Palestinian worshippers.

The ancient city of Jerusalem, held sacred by Jews, Muslims, and Christians, became a focal point of conflict. At the commencement of Ramadan, the Damascus entrance to the city was barricaded with fences. In April, Israeli police were involved in the killing of a 26-year-old Palestinian near the Chain Gate, a gateway leading to Al-Aqsa Mosque. This tragic incident led to clashes as Israeli police attempted to remove Palestinians who had barricaded themselves inside the mosque overnight for prayers. Approximately 400 Palestinians were arrested.

The Israeli raid on the mosque drew condemnation from Palestinians, as well as Arab nations. The United Nations Security Council convened a closed session to discuss the evolving situation.

The situation escalated further when Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right politician and ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu, visited the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa compound alongside his security secretary and police chief. This visit was deemed provocative and a violation of the status quo by Palestinians, Jordan, and Egypt, leading to condemnation and criticism from the United States, which was increasingly alarmed by inflammatory rhetoric.

Located just north of the old city, Sheikh Jarrah found itself at the center of political and security turmoil. Israeli police forcibly evicted Palestinian families and demolished their homes in this East Jerusalem neighborhood, due to a legal case that had reached Israel's Supreme Court. This case revolved around ownership disputes over certain residences. A court ruling in May supported the eviction of Palestinian families, favoring an Israeli settler association, triggering massive protests.

Israel's policies, particularly the promotion of settlements in the West Bank, have been a contentious issue both domestically and internationally, with experts suggesting that this recent attack could be a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict. While Israel may emerge victorious militarily, the psychological impact and the shift in international perception could have long-lasting consequences.

Amidst these developments, the specter of a potential Saudi-Israeli deal has cast its own shadow on tensions. This prospective agreement, viewed by many as sidelining the Palestinian cause, adds another layer of complexity to the region's intricate geopolitics. Israel's leadership, particularly under Netanyahu's tenure, has come under intense scrutiny, as have the peace accords established between Israel and other Arab nations under the Abraham Accords.

The recently signed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) initiative is also potentially affected by these developments.

Israel faced criticism when Netanyahu brandished a map at the UN General Assembly session, one that omitted all Palestinian territories, considered by many as the most extreme stance taken by an Israeli leader in history. Netanyahu presented a series of maps, including one that excluded the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza, intending to illustrate Israel's expanding regional friendships and how normalization with Saudi Arabia could further enhance this.

In the current conflict, with Hamas in Gaza, approximately 2.2 million Palestinians inhabit a confined geographical area spanning a mere 365 square kilometers. Although Israel asserts that Hamas governs the Gaza Strip, the livelihood and basic sustenance of its residents are subject to Israeli control.

Hamas had previously issued warnings against Israeli actions in Al-Aqsa, Sheikh Jarrah, and the refugee camps. Further intensifying the situation, attacks targeted Al Jazeera and AP offices, limiting the flow of information from Gaza.

In May 2022, Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh lost her life while reporting in the West Bank, becoming a tragic part of a recurring pattern of violence against journalists, as reported by the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Looking ahead, the future remains uncertain. While Israel's partners, particularly the United States, have provided military support to bolster Israel's offensive against Hamas, there will eventually be a need for ceasefire negotiations, particularly as civilian casualties mount in Gaza. The United Nations, Egypt, Qatar, and other entities have played roles in mediating efforts, with Turkey also stepping in.

Ultimately, Israel will face critical decisions as the dust settles. Netanyahu, who presided over the worst attack on Israel during his tenure, may face severe political consequences if he does not respond decisively. The region grapples with the aftermath, and the quest for lasting peace becomes increasingly elusive.

 

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