Following Azerbaijan's swift military offensive in late September, which prompted nearly all ethnic Armenians to flee the self-proclaimed republic, the political situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has become precarious. The region now finds itself almost devoid of residents, as the vast majority of its estimated 120,000 inhabitants have departed, with accusations from Yerevan of Azerbaijan conducting an "ethnic cleansing" campaign to clear the area.
After three decades of struggle, Karabakh separatists have agreed to disarm, dissolve their government, and reintegrate with Baku. Azerbaijan is currently making preparations to regain control of the breakaway territory.
Reintegration Efforts
Despite Baku's assertion that it is offering Armenians in the region the opportunity to "reintegrate" into Azerbaijan with their rights protected, very few Armenians have returned to or remained in areas reclaimed by Azerbaijan following the 2020 conflict. Baku also speaks of a "great return" of the 750,000 Azerbaijanis who fled Karabakh, Armenia, and surrounding territories during the initial conflict in the 1980s and 90s.
The Disarming Process after 30 Years
While the majority of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh have ceased, sporadic incidents continue to occur. Russian and Azerbaijani forces, for instance, reportedly came under sniper fire on Monday, according to Moscow, and Armenia reported the loss of one serviceman along the shared border with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan claims that the process of disarmament and disbandment in the territory is now complete, with no remaining illegal Armenian armed forces in combat outposts. Many bases and military installations have been recaptured, resulting in the seizure of an arsenal comprising over 2,000 rifles and 22 armored vehicles, as per preliminary estimates.
One of the primary concerns at present is the presence of mines in the region, with demining efforts just commencing. Due to the lack of precise mapping, estimates regarding the extent of the mine issue vary significantly, with Azerbaijan reporting millions of mines, while other sources suggest at least 100,000.
Uncertain Future of the Russian Peacekeeping Mission
The future of Russia's 2,000-strong peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh remains undetermined. This mission was deployed to the mountainous region as part of a brokered ceasefire agreement in 2020. The Kremlin has stated that the mission's future would be decided by Russia and Azerbaijan.
Economic Integration and Property Matters
Hundreds of thousands of Armenians who fled Karabakh left behind their homes, livestock, and livelihoods. Baku has indicated that property-related matters would be addressed in accordance with Azerbaijani law, without providing further details. Additionally, Baku has pledged to bring physical and social infrastructure in Karabakh in line with the national average across Azerbaijan, facilitating the circulation of the national currency. Plans include connecting the territory to national services, with water, electricity, and telecommunications among the initial priorities for installation.
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