The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a report highlighting India's soaring demand for electricity, particularly driven by the necessity of running household air conditioners. The IEA's World Energy Outlook predicts that by 2050, India's demand for electricity related to air conditioning will increase nine-fold, surpassing the total power consumption of the entire African continent today.
The IEA has identified India as the country or region that will experience the most substantial growth in energy demand over the next 30 years. The agency estimates that India's energy supply will increase significantly under various scenarios. In line with stated policy scenarios, the energy supply is projected to rise from 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 53.7 EJ in 2030 and 73 EJ in 2050. Under the announced pledges scenario, these figures are 47.6 EJ by 2030 and 60.3 EJ by 2050.
Moreover, the IEA anticipates a surge in oil demand, from 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 to 6.8 million bpd in 2030 and 7.8 million bpd in 2050 understated policy scenarios. Under the announced pledges, these figures are 6.2 million bpd in 2030 and 4.7 million bpd in 2050.
One significant factor contributing to India's increased electricity consumption is the growing ownership and use of household air conditioners, driven by rising incomes. Ownership of these appliances has tripled since 2010, reaching 24 units per 100 households. The demand for cooling via air conditioning is already evident, with electricity consumption for space cooling rising by 21 percent between 2019 and 2022. Approximately 10 percent of electricity demand in India currently results from space cooling requirements.
The IEA's projections show that household air conditioner ownership is expected to surge nine-fold by 2050 across different scenarios. The energy consumption due to residential air conditioning is predicted to rise nine-fold in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) by 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), energy demand for air conditioners in 2050 is about 15 percent lower than in STEPS, primarily due to the adoption of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings.
Air conditioning usage and the corresponding rise in peak electricity demand is one of the major contributors to the increased power demand in India. In the STEPS scenario, peak electricity demand is projected to increase by about 60 percent from 2022 to 2030, with cooling accounting for nearly half of this growth. In the APS scenario, which includes energy-efficient measures, building codes, and the use of more efficient appliances, peak electricity demand growth is reduced by almost a quarter compared to STEPS.
The IEA emphasizes that the lower demand for cooling achieved through energy efficiency policies also diminishes the need for investments in batteries and expensive standby generation capacity, thereby promoting more cost-effective integration of renewable energy sources.
The report also recognizes India's shift towards a net-zero emissions ambition, increased regulatory sophistication, clean energy deployment, and the establishment of domestic clean energy technology supply chains. The country aims for net-zero emissions by 2070 and has implemented policies to expand clean energy supply and technology manufacturing.
Despite India's population growth stabilizing, its urban population is increasing significantly, and per capita income is projected to triple by 2050. This transformation is contributing to higher demand for oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as a substantial increase in residential air conditioner ownership. This growth in fossil fuel usage leads to a nearly 30 percent increase in annual CO2 emissions by 2050 under STEPS.
However, the APS scenario, characterized by a substantial increase in clean energy investment, changes this outlook. It accelerates the growth of solar power and other clean energy infrastructure. As a result, annual CO2 emissions fall by over 40 percent from current levels by 2050, even as India's GDP quadruples over the same period.
In conclusion, the IEA report underscores the critical role of energy efficiency measures and clean energy investments in shaping India's future energy landscape and reducing emissions while meeting the nation's growing energy needs.
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