China has successfully deployed its inaugural nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, as per the Pentagon's latest assessment of China's military capabilities. This development now endows China with the capacity for both land and sea-based attack capabilities, a realm that was previously exclusive to U.S. and Russian naval vessels.
The Pentagon report, published on October 20, provides the initial apparent confirmation that the altered submarines observed in Chinese shipyards over the past 18 months are, in fact, Type 093B guided missile submarines.
This revelation corroborates the May 2022 Reuters report based on satellite imagery from the Huludao shipyard in northeast China, which indicated the presence of a novel or upgraded class of submarine, potentially equipped with vertical tubes for launching cruise missiles.
The Pentagon report articulates that, in the short term, the Chinese navy will be equipped to execute long-range precision strikes on land-based targets from submarines and surface combat vessels using land-attack cruise missiles, thereby notably augmenting China's power projection capabilities.
These conventionally armed missile submarines, referred to as SSGNs, originally emerged during the Cold War, with the Soviet Union developing them partly to target U.S. aircraft carriers. In response, the U.S. Navy created its variant by converting ballistic missile submarines into carriers of substantial quantities of land-attack Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Cruise missiles are typically characterized by their long-range precision, which contrasts with ballistic weapons. Unlike the latter, cruise missiles fly at low altitudes or skim along the sea's surface.
In 2011, the USS Florida, a U.S. SSGN, launched 93 Tomahawks against Libyan air defenses, marking the initial combat deployments of this kind from a U.S. vessel. This event was intensely scrutinized by Chinese strategists, according to regional military attaches.
Some experts assert that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) navy is likely to deploy these submarines as an additional weapon against aircraft carriers while also using them as land-attack platforms, thereby enabling strikes from a far greater distance compared to their fleets of smaller attack submarines.
The report underscores that three of these new SSGNs could be operational by the next year as part of a comprehensive expansion of China's submarine fleet, encompassing both nuclear and diesel-powered vessels. This expansion could lead to a total of 65 submarines by 2025.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not provide a response to Reuters' inquiries on this matter.
The confirmation of this development occurs amidst an escalating submarine arms race, with China constructing a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines as part of its evolving deterrent force. This competition to monitor China's submarines at sea serves as one of the driving factors behind the increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other armed forces across the Indo-Pacific region.
Collin Koh, a security scholar based in Singapore, asserts that these SSGNs represent a significant new capability for the Chinese navy. With a projected core armament consisting of cruise missiles, he contends that this would potentially enable them to execute land and anti-ship attacks from a standoff range. This strategic advantage would complicate the decision-making processes of China's adversaries.
Koh emphasizes, "I would also expect the Chinese have learned from the Russian experience in using them to threaten U.S. aircraft carriers - with an SSGN, you can launch strikes at a standoff range, unlike a typical attack submarine that could have more limited weapon options, and that is a real advantage."
The research discussed at the U.S. Naval War College in May indicated that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) was on the verge of achieving significant reductions in the noise levels of their nuclear-powered submarines, making them far more challenging to track for the U.S. and its allies.
Nonetheless, diplomats and experts have raised concerns about whether these advancements have been integrated into the recently launched SSGNs. Such improvements are expected to be integrated into nuclear-powered submarines introduced before the end of the decade.
One Asian military attache following China's submarine force expressed caution, suggesting that unless they are certain about these enhancements, the PLA navy might deploy them cautiously initially. It is evident, however, that the submarine force is a priority for Xi Jinping, further underlining the significance of this development.
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