Germany's center-right opposition secured victories in two state elections held on Sunday, marking the midpoint of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's less popular national government. At the same time, a far-right party that had been gaining ground in national polls celebrated its own gains.
The elections were conducted amid a campaign marked by dissatisfaction with ongoing disputes within the national government and mounting pressure to reduce the number of migrants entering Germany. The national interior minister, who is responsible for federal responses to migration, faced a significant defeat in her attempt to become the governor of her home state.
Approximately 9.4 million eligible voters participated in the election for the new state legislature in Bavaria, while around 4.3 million voters cast their ballots in neighboring Hesse, which includes Germany's financial hub, Frankfurt. Both states were already under the leadership of the country's primary opposition Union bloc, comprising the Christian Democratic Union and the Bavaria-specific Christian Social Union.
Projections based on exit polls and advanced vote counting, as reported by ARD and ZDF public television, indicated that the CSU, the long-standing ruling party in Bavaria, was likely to extend its dominance with nearly 37% support—roughly consistent with the results from five years ago and significantly ahead of its nearest competitor by approximately 20 percentage points. In Hesse, the CDU was projected to secure around 34% of the vote, showing gains and maintaining a substantial lead over other parties.
The far-right Alternative for Germany party, despite becoming the second-largest party in national polls behind the Union, was not expected to play a role in forming the new state governments because other parties had declined to cooperate with it. However, the party appeared likely to secure second place in Hesse and potentially also in Bavaria, with projections indicating it would garner about 18% of the vote in Hesse and 16% in Bavaria—marked improvements compared to its performance in 2018 when both states last held elections.
The results were less favorable for the three parties that make up the national governing coalition: Scholz's center-left Social Democrats, the environmentalist Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats. In Hesse, conservative governor Boris Rhein faced challenges from his current Green deputy and the Social Democrats' candidate, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, but neither managed to break the CDU's 24-year grip on the position, with both projected to receive about 15% support. Leading Social Democrats expressed their continued support for Faeser as interior minister.
Scholz's governing coalition has been a source of frustration for voters due to frequent public disagreements, particularly on issues like the replacement of fossil-fuel heating systems with more environmentally friendly alternatives.
The projections also indicated that the Free Democrats would fall short of the 5% support threshold needed to maintain a presence in Bavaria's state legislature and were uncertain about reaching that threshold in Hesse. The party's previous electoral disappointments had contributed to tensions within the national government.
Lars Klingbeil, one of the Social Democrats' leaders, stated that voters had sent a signal to the governing parties, emphasizing the need for a different approach to addressing the country's challenges. He called for efforts to strengthen Germany's economic position and expressed expectations of a more effective and collaborative style from the government.
Omid Nouripour, the Greens' national co-leader, recognized the need to regain public confidence, particularly in response to the far-right Alternative for Germany's results.
AfD's chief whip in the German parliament, Bernd Baumann, claimed that there was a shift occurring in Germany from left to right and accused the mainstream conservative opposition, which had criticized the government's handling of migration, of wavering while AfD thrived.
In Munich, Governor Markus Soeder asserted that "Bavaria has voted for stability" during challenging times. Soeder had chosen to maintain his coalition with the Free Voters, a locally strong conservative party that lacks representation in the national parliament, despite controversy surrounding allegations, which Aiwanger denied, of his involvement in an antisemitic flyer during high school.
Although Soeder has repeatedly denied any ambitions to challenge Scholz in 2025, his recent performance, while not meeting the historical standards of his party, is unlikely to halt speculation about his political future.
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