The United States government is on the brink of a shutdown that could disrupt numerous government services, impact federal employees, and create political turmoil. House Republicans, driven by staunch budget-cutting demands, are precipitating a showdown over federal spending.
While some government functions will be exempted – for example, Social Security payments will continue – many others will be severely curtailed. Federal agencies will cease all nonessential activities, and a significant portion of the government's roughly 2 million employees, along with 2 million active-duty military personnel and reservists, will not receive their paychecks.
Here is a closer look at what could transpire if the government enters a shutdown on Sunday:
A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass funding legislation that the president signs into law. Ideally, lawmakers are expected to pass 12 different spending bills to fund various government agencies, but this process is time-consuming. Consequently, temporary extensions called continuing resolutions (CRs) are often used to keep the government operational.
During a funding impasse, federal agencies must halt all nonessential activities and withhold paychecks from affected employees. A 2019 law ensures that furloughed workers receive backpay once the funding issue is resolved.
Government funding is set to expire on October 1, marking the beginning of the federal budget year. If Congress cannot pass a funding plan signed into law by the president, a shutdown would commence effectively at 12:01 a.m. on October 1.
It is impossible to predict the duration of a shutdown. Currently, the Democratic-controlled Senate and the Republican-led House are pursuing vastly different plans to avert a shutdown. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is struggling to gain support from hard-right conservatives to keep the government running. Consequently, many anticipate a protracted shutdown, potentially lasting weeks.
Millions of federal workers, including a substantial portion of the approximately 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million civilian employees nationwide, would experience delayed paychecks. The first payday missed would be on October 13 for many.
Nearly 60% of federal workers are employed in the Department of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security. In a shutdown, over half of the Department of Defense's civilian workforce, approximately 440,000 individuals, would be furloughed.
Federal workers are stationed in all 50 states and interact directly with taxpayers, from Transportation Security Administration agents managing airport security to Postal Service employees delivering mail.
Moreover, a shutdown could have wide-reaching consequences for government services. Delays might affect individuals applying for government services like clinical medical trials, firearm permits, and passports. Head Start programs serving over 10,000 disadvantaged children could lose federal funding. National parks would close, and their services would be unavailable. Several federal offices may close or have reduced hours during a shutdown.
Businesses closely tied to the federal government, including federal contractors and tourist services near national parks, could experience disruptions and financial losses. The travel sector could lose an estimated $140 million per day, according to the U.S. Travel Industry Association. Additionally, financial markets could be rattled, and economic growth might be reduced during a shutdown.
The president and members of Congress would continue working and receiving their salaries. However, staff members not deemed essential would be furloughed.
The Supreme Court, starting its new term soon, would remain unaffected by a brief shutdown because it can utilize a fund replenished by court fees. The entire federal judiciary would continue operating normally for at least the first two weeks of October, with decisions about which activities to continue made by individual courts across the nation. Federal judges and justices would continue receiving their pay since the Constitution prohibits reducing judges' salaries during their tenure.
Funding for the three special counsels appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland would remain unaffected by a government shutdown, as they are financed through a permanent, indefinite appropriation that has been exempted from previous shutdowns. Consequently, cases against Donald Trump and Hunter Biden would proceed without interruption.
Prior to the 1980s, government funding lapses did not lead to significant government shutdowns. However, then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti contended in 1980 and 1981 that government agencies cannot legally function during a funding gap, leading to the understanding that exemptions for functions essential to public safety and constitutional duties could be made.
Since 1976, there have been 22 funding gaps, with 10 resulting in employee furloughs. Most major shutdowns occurred during Bill Clinton's presidency when Speaker Newt Gingrich and his conservative House majority demanded budget cuts.
The longest government shutdown occurred from 2018 to 2019 when then-President Trump and congressional Democrats clashed over funding for a border wall. It lasted 35 days but was only a partial government shutdown since some appropriations bills had already passed.
Congress bears the responsibility for funding the government. Both the House and Senate must agree on a funding plan that the president signs into law. Currently, the two sides are far from reaching a deal to avoid a shutdown.
If a shutdown persists for weeks, pressure will mount to resolve the impasse, particularly if active-duty military members miss paychecks. Any disruptions in air travel or border security due to unpaid workers could further push Congress to act.
In the past, Congress has relied on continuing resolutions to provide stopgap funding to open government offices at current levels while budget negotiations are ongoing. Funding for critical national priorities, such as disaster relief, is often attached to short-term bills.
However, hardline Republicans are opposing any temporary bill and insist that the government remain shut down until Congress negotiates all 12 bills that fund the government—a historically lengthy process typically not resolved until December at the earliest.
