The Biden administration is closely monitoring the ongoing dispute between India and Canada, and some officials within the administration are expressing concerns that this conflict could potentially disrupt the United States' strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. These strategic objectives are primarily aimed at countering China's expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Of particular concern is the potential impact of the Canada-India dispute on one of the administration's top foreign policy priorities: the Indo-Pacific strategy. This strategy is designed to counter China's growing assertiveness in the region and represents a crucial element of the administration's efforts to address international challenges. Several US officials, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the issue, have highlighted their worries regarding the situation.
Both Canada and India hold significant importance for US-led endeavors to present a united and democratic front against China's increasing assertiveness. Canada, as a Pacific nation and a key NATO ally, shares the world's longest undefended border with the United States. India, on the other hand, plays a pivotal role in the Indo-Pacific region and is part of a leadership group that includes Australia, Japan, and the United States—commonly referred to as the "Quad." President Joe Biden has emphasized the significance of the Quad in advancing US interests in the Indo-Pacific.
The worst-case scenario envisioned by US policymakers is that the current dispute could escalate similarly to the 2018 crisis involving Britain and Russia over the poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England. In that instance, Britain accused Russia of an assassination attempt on its territory and expelled Russian diplomats, prompting the United States and other allies to take similar actions. Such an escalation, in the context of the Canada-India dispute, could lead to a rupture in US-Indian relations and potentially disrupt cooperation within the Quad.
While the situation has not yet reached that critical point, US officials are closely monitoring its development. The concern is that Canada may request the expulsion of a significant number of Indian diplomats, which the United States would be compelled to comply with. This, in turn, could have far-reaching consequences for US-Indian relations and the broader regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.
Despite the current relief that the situation has not escalated to the worst-case scenario, it remains a situation that experts and officials are keeping a watchful eye on, given its potential implications for regional stability and US foreign policy objectives.
The allegation of Indian involvement in the murder that triggered this dispute was supported by intelligence from the "Five Eyes" alliance, which comprises Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. Prior to Canada's public accusations, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had tense interactions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a Group of 20 meeting in New Delhi. Additionally, Canada canceled a planned trade mission to India shortly thereafter.
More recently, India called for the removal of 41 out of Canada's 62 diplomats in the country, escalating the confrontation. While Trudeau and other Canadian officials have indicated that Canada is not seeking to provoke or escalate the situation, concerns about the consequences of the dispute persist in Washington.
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