The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported that a low-pressure area, initially present over the southeast and adjoining southwest regions of the Arabian Sea, has now developed into a depression. Furthermore, it is anticipated to intensify into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 21. This development marks the second cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea this year, and it is designated 'Tej,' adhering to the standard practice for naming cyclones within the Indian Ocean Region.
According to the IMD's forecasts, the cyclonic storm is projected to undergo further intensification, potentially becoming a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday. Its path is anticipated to take it towards the southern coasts of Oman and the adjacent areas of Yemen. However, meteorologists are cautious, as storm systems can occasionally veer from their predicted trajectories and intensity levels. Such deviations were observed with Cyclone Biparjoy, which initially formed in the Arabian Sea in June, initially moving in a north-northwest direction before altering its course to make landfall between Mandvi in Gujarat and Karachi in Pakistan.
The private forecasting agency Skymet Weather suggests that the majority of models indicate that the storm is headed toward the coast of Yemen and Oman. Nevertheless, the Global Forecast System models propose a curvature while the storm is positioned over the deep central portions of the Arabian Sea, redirecting the system towards Pakistan and the Gujarat coast.
In meteorological terms, a cyclonic storm is characterized by a maximum sustained wind speed ranging from 62 to 88 kilometers per hour, while it is classified as a severe cyclonic storm when the maximum sustained wind speed reaches levels between 89 and 117 kilometers per hour.
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