"The demarcation between the South and North regions within the political landscape of India appears to be growing more distinct and pronounced," remarked Congress leader Karti Chidambaram following the party's victory in the Telangana Vidhan Sabha elections, juxtaposed with its losses in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in 2023.
Karti sought to underscore the divergent voting patterns between Telangana and the three heartland states.
Fast forward three months, and Himachal Pradesh, the solitary Congress-ruled state in the northern region, finds itself embroiled in a political quagmire.
As the only northern state where the Congress holds power independently, Himachal Pradesh stands apart from its counterparts, Karnataka and Telangana, situated in the southern region.
THE CONGRESS TREADING A TENUOUS PATH IN HIMACHAL
In the 2022 Himachal Assembly elections, the Congress secured 40 out of 68 seats, forming the government with Sukhvinder Sukhu appointed as the chief minister.
However, a recent Rajya Sabha election in the Himachal Assembly saw six Congress MLAs cross-voting in favor of the BJP candidate.
With the House's majority threshold set at 35, the Congress now finds itself precariously balanced with 34 MLAs, following the defection of the six members.
Among the dissenting MLAs is Vikramaditya Singh, son of former Himachal Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh, who lamented that their perspectives were disregarded within the Congress.
Singh also accused the Sukhu administration of neglecting Virbhadra's legacy, which played a pivotal role in the Congress's triumph in the previous Assembly polls.
Subsequently, the Bharatiya Janata Party's leader of the opposition, Jairam Thakur, along with party MLAs, met Himachal Governor Shiv Pratap Shukla, urging a floor test and asserting that Chief Minister Sukhvinder Sukhu had forfeited the mandate to govern.
For now, the Sukhu government has been granted a three-month reprieve until the next session of the Himachal Assembly convenes. Nevertheless, the governor retains the prerogative to convene a special session to ascertain whether the Sukhu government commands the confidence of a majority of MLAs.
THE DIMINISHING CONGRESS INFLUENCE
As of February 2024, the political tableau reveals that the Congress governs just three states autonomously—Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana—while serving as a junior alliance partner in two additional states—Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.
In both Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu, the Congress contributes 17 MLAs to the coalition government.
However, even in Jharkhand, the Congress is grappling with internal strife as a handful of its MLAs traveled to New Delhi to protest against the inclusion of only four Congress legislators in the Champai Soren Cabinet earlier this month.
Turning northward again, should the Congress lose its grip on Himachal Pradesh, its territorial foothold will be confined to the southern states.
In fact, Kerala, another southern bastion, presents a glimmer of hope for the Congress's resurgence.
Kerala has frequently witnessed the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the Congress and Pinarayi Vijayan's Left Democratic Front (LDF) alternating power. Vijayan managed to break this cycle of alternating governments only in 2021.
However, the fate of Kerala's political landscape will remain uncertain until 2026.
For now, as the Congress grapples with declining fortunes, it waits with bated breath, hoping for a change in its fortunes.
