Iran has conveyed a diplomatic message to the United States indicating its intention to respond to the recent attack on its Syrian embassy in a cautious and calculated manner. This message, reportedly conveyed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian during a visit to Oman, underscores Iran's desire to avoid a significant escalation of tensions. While the White House declined to comment on the specifics of Iran's message, it emphasized that the US was not involved in the attack on the embassy.
Sources familiar with US intelligence suggest that Iran has expressed its commitment to a controlled and non-escalatory response, opting to utilize regional proxies to launch retaliatory actions against Israel. This approach indicates Iran's strategic calculation to deter further actions by Israel while preventing a broader military conflict that could draw in the US.
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly stated that Israel must face consequences for the attack, indicating Tehran's resolve to respond. However, Iran has historically avoided direct involvement in conflicts, instead supporting proxy groups in neighboring countries to carry out attacks.
Despite Iran's assertive stance, it seeks to minimize the risk of direct confrontation with the US. This is evidenced by its commitment to a non-escalatory response toward US forces in the region. Additionally, the US has reportedly urged Iran to exercise restraint and engage in diplomatic dialogue to reduce tensions.
The Iranian leadership faces a complex dilemma in formulating its response. While it seeks to assert its strength and deter further aggression from Israel, it also aims to avoid a situation that could lead to a broader conflict with unpredictable consequences. Ultimately, Iran's response will likely be shaped by its assessment of the risks and benefits of different courses of action in the context of regional dynamics and international pressure.
