Prashant Kishor's predictions about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) making significant gains in the southern and eastern states in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections have stirred much discussion among political observers. Let's delve into the states he mentioned and the likelihood of BJP's success there.
**1. West Bengal**: Prashant Kishor boldly stated that the BJP might emerge as the number one party in West Bengal. While the BJP made considerable strides in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 18 seats and securing around 40% of the vote share, the political landscape remains complex. Factors such as minority vote consolidation against the BJP due to issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) could pose challenges. Experts are divided on whether the BJP will see a significant increase in seats, with some predicting a potential rise in its vote share, but others suggesting a more modest outcome.
**2. Odisha**: Kishor's prediction of BJP becoming the number one party in Odisha seems plausible. The BJP has been steadily expanding its presence in the state, winning eight out of 21 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections. With factors like anti-incumbency against the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) government and the perceived popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP's prospects in Odisha appear promising. Experts anticipate the BJP doubling its tally in the state, potentially winning 15-16 seats or more.
**3. Telangana**: The BJP's performance in Telangana has been noteworthy, securing four seats in the 2019 elections and emerging as the second-largest party in the state. Kishor's prediction of the BJP being either the first or second party in Telangana aligns with this trend. However, the extent of BJP's gains in Telangana remains uncertain, with some experts foreseeing an increase in seats, albeit not substantial, while others suggest that local issues and opposition from regional parties could limit BJP's growth.
**4. Tamil Nadu**: While Kishor suggested that BJP's vote share percentage in Tamil Nadu may hit double digits, experts are skeptical about the party's chances of winning seats in the state. Tamil Nadu's political landscape is dominated by regional parties like the DMK and AIADMK, leaving limited space for the BJP to make significant electoral inroads. While BJP's vote share may increase, especially in certain constituencies, winning seats appears challenging.
**5. Andhra Pradesh**: Prashant Kishor indicated that it would be "very difficult" for Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy to retain Andhra Pradesh. The BJP, in alliance with the TDP and Jana Sena Party, is expected to make significant gains in the state. Experts predict that the NDA could win around 18-19 seats out of 25, with the BJP potentially securing three seats. However, the electoral dynamics in Andhra Pradesh are complex, and the final outcome remains uncertain.
**6. Karnataka**: Although Prashant Kishor didn't comment on Karnataka, the state holds significance for BJP's electoral prospects in the south. The BJP's stronghold in Karnataka is well-established, with the party winning 25 out of 28 seats in the 2019 elections. While experts acknowledge the BJP's strength in Karnataka, they differ on whether the party will be able to retain its dominance in the state. Some anticipate the BJP maintaining its seat tally, while others suggest that challenges from rival parties could impact the BJP's performance.
**7. Kerala**: Kishor did not comment on Kerala, where BJP's electoral prospects have historically been limited. The state's political landscape is characterized by a contest between the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front. While the BJP may increase its vote share, winning seats in Kerala remains a formidable challenge due to the entrenched presence of regional parties.
In conclusion, while Prashant Kishor's predictions reflect potential areas of BJP's electoral gains in the southern and eastern states, the actual outcomes may vary depending on various factors such as local dynamics, alliances, and voter sentiments. Experts agree with some of Kishor's assessments, particularly regarding Odisha, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, but some uncertainties and challenges could influence BJP's electoral performance in other states.
