The growth of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in Kerala, particularly in terms of its membership and organizational strength, has indeed been notable, leading to the division of the state into two 'pranths' for better management. However, despite this growth, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has struggled to make significant electoral gains in the state. Several factors contribute to this disparity between the RSS's expansion and the BJP's electoral performance:
1. **Historical Context**: Kerala has been a stronghold of Communist parties, with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] wielding considerable influence. The state saw its first non-Congress government formed by the Communists in 1957. This ideological dominance has made it challenging for the BJP to establish itself electorally, especially given the strong grassroots presence of the Communist parties.
2. **Vote Transfer Dynamics**: The close alliance between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) often leads to strategic vote transfers between them, hindering the BJP's electoral prospects. The unity between these two fronts, particularly in opposing the BJP, presents a formidable challenge for the saffron party.
3. **Leftist Propaganda**: The Left parties in Kerala have consistently portrayed the RSS and the BJP as anti-liberal and regressive forces. This sustained propaganda has created negative perceptions among the electorate, making it difficult for the BJP to broaden its support base beyond its traditional constituency.
4. **Violence and Intimidation**: The BJP and RSS have faced significant resistance and violence in Kerala, with numerous instances of attacks on party workers and leaders, often resulting in fatalities. The targeted killings of local BJP leaders have created a climate of fear and deterrence, impeding the party's organizational growth and electoral prospects.
5. **Demographic Challenges**: Kerala's demographic composition, characterized by a significant Christian and Muslim population, poses a challenge for the BJP, which traditionally draws support from Hindu voters. The party's attempts to expand its appeal among non-Hindu communities have met with limited success, particularly in the face of entrenched political allegiances.
6. **Lack of Strong Local Leadership**: Unlike some other states where the BJP has charismatic local leaders, Kerala lacks prominent BJP figures who can galvanize public support and spearhead the party's electoral campaigns effectively. The absence of compelling local leadership has hindered the BJP's ability to connect with voters at the grassroots level.
Despite these challenges, the BJP remains optimistic about its prospects in Kerala, citing its growing organizational strength and increasing vote share in recent elections. The party believes that the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's development agenda, coupled with disillusionment with the existing political establishment, particularly among the youth, could translate into electoral gains in the future. However, overcoming entrenched political dynamics and ideological resistance will continue to pose significant hurdles for the BJP in Kerala.
