Wood Mackenzie's recent analysis suggests that if Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming November 5 presidential election, approximately $1 trillion in low carbon energy investments could be at risk. The report predicts that carbon emissions could surge by an additional 1 billion tonnes by 2050 compared to current policies.
David Brown, Director of Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Research, emphasized the critical role of the election cycle in shaping energy investment dynamics. He stressed that immediate investments in low carbon energy sources are necessary to meet long-term decarbonization goals, warning that US carbon emissions may rise, hindering efforts to achieve net-zero emissions.
The analysis highlights the stark differences between Trump and his rival, President Joe Biden, particularly regarding climate change policies. While Biden has prioritized climate action and clean energy initiatives, Trump has proposed to reverse many of these policies, including tax credits for electric vehicles and emissions standards for cars and power plants. Additionally, Trump is expected to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, a move he had made during his previous presidency.
Wood Mackenzie's projections indicate that under current policies, the US energy sector could attract approximately $7.7 trillion in investment from 2023 to 2050. However, if Republicans overturn key policies supporting low-carbon energy and infrastructure enhancements, this investment could decrease by $1 trillion. Furthermore, the analysis forecasts that under a scenario where Trump's policies are reinstated, net US energy-related CO2 emissions could be significantly higher by 2050.
The report also suggests that the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) could be adversely affected, with the total stock of EVs projected to be 50% lower by 2050 compared to current policies. This decline is attributed to automakers potentially shifting investments towards hybrid production rather than electric cars.
