Several top White House aides express confidence that protests across U.S. college campuses against Israel's offensive in Gaza will not significantly impact President Joe Biden's chances in the 2024 election. Despite polling indicating deep dissatisfaction among many Democrats regarding Biden's handling of the conflict, these aides believe the protests are too minor to affect the election outcome significantly.
Biden's campaign and White House officials are advising the president to maintain a distance from the protests, suggesting that engaging with the protesters directly could be counterproductive. They argue that in a choice between Biden and former President Donald Trump, Democrats, even those critical of Biden's Middle East policy, will ultimately vote for Biden.
This optimism contrasts with warnings from some Democratic strategists and youth organizers who caution that misjudging the situation could be costly for Biden. The concern is that dissatisfaction, particularly among young voters, could lead to reduced voter turnout or even votes against Biden. Polls, including a Reuters/Ipsos survey, indicate a significant drop in support for Biden among young voters compared to 2020.
Biden's aides point to issues like housing costs and inflation as being more critical to young voters than the conflict in Gaza. They cite a recent Harvard poll showing that the Israel/Palestine issue ranks low among youth concerns.
Biden has been cautious in addressing the protests, emphasizing the importance of free speech and condemning antisemitism while avoiding direct engagement with the criticism of his support for Israel. This approach has not satisfied some youth groups, who argue that the administration is underestimating the potential backlash.
Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of both the protests and Biden's handling of the war, and some have called for stronger measures, including deploying National Guard troops to campuses.
Despite the internal debates and varied perspectives, the White House maintains that Biden's overall electoral strategy, focusing on broader economic issues, will prevail. However, there remains an undercurrent of concern among some officials that the administration is not fully addressing the potential electoral impact of youth disillusionment with Biden's foreign policy stance.
