The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself navigating unfamiliar terrain in Punjab as it ventures into the 2024 Lok Sabha elections without its longtime ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), marking a departure from a nearly three-decade-old alliance. This shift prompts an exploration into why the BJP, which once shared a robust coalition with the SAD and governed Punjab jointly for 15 years, encounters challenges in establishing its foothold in the state independently. The party's electoral strategy, the issues it prioritizes, and its prospects across the 13 constituencies in Punjab warrant scrutiny in light of this seismic shift.
The dissolution of the BJP-SAD alliance signals a significant departure from the past camaraderie symbolized by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reverential gesture towards the late Shiromani Akali Dal patriarch, Parkash Singh Badal, during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, the landscape has drastically transformed since then, with Badal's demise in 2023 and the SAD's departure from the NDA fold in September 2020 amid the tumult of the farm protests.
As the BJP embarks on its solitary campaign trail in Punjab, the party's aspirations hinge on several factors. Historically, the BJP's political trajectory in Punjab has been intertwined with the SAD, which wielded considerable influence and controlled the BJP's ascent within the state. The absence of this symbiotic partnership poses challenges for the BJP, necessitating a recalibration of its electoral strategy and engagement with Punjab's electorate.
Contrary to its erstwhile emphasis on national issues, the BJP now endeavors to connect with diverse segments of the electorate in Punjab, albeit with a nuanced approach. The party's narrative encompasses commemorations of cultural and religious milestones, such as the 400th Parkash Purb of Guru Tegh Bahadur, and initiatives like the construction of a ropeway to Hemkunt Sahib. Additionally, Prime Minister Modi's invocation of the Kartarpur issue underscores the BJP's efforts to resonate with the Sikh community by addressing historical grievances and asserting its commitment to their welfare.
Despite the BJP's concerted efforts to broaden its appeal, the party's resonance in rural Punjab remains a subject of conjecture. While it enjoys traction among urban demographics, particularly the trading community, its outreach in rural hinterlands appears constrained. This limitation stems partly from the BJP's historical reliance on the SAD's rural stronghold, which constrained its grassroots presence and organizational infrastructure within the state.
The BJP's electoral calculus also grapples with the complex interplay of caste dynamics and socio-economic factors inherent to Punjab's political landscape. Notably, the farmers' protests, emblematic of widespread discontent with the government's agricultural policies, pose a formidable challenge to the BJP's electoral prospects. Moreover, the party's overtures towards Dalits and Sikh Jats confront the intricacies of Punjab's demographic mosaic, necessitating a nuanced approach to garner support across diverse constituencies.
As Punjab braces for the final phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's electoral fortunes stand poised at a critical juncture. The outcome of this four-cornered electoral contest, featuring the BJP, AAP, Congress, and the erstwhile ally SAD, will not only shape the immediate electoral landscape but also portend broader implications for Punjab's political trajectory in the years to come.
