As the 2024 Lok Sabha election progresses, five of the seven phases have concluded amidst intense competition and slightly lower voter turnout. With the remaining two phases to be held, all eyes are now on June 4, the day the election results will be announced. India Today TV editors Rajdeep Sardesai and Rahul Kanwal have analyzed the critical factors in each phase, which could potentially influence the final outcomes for both the NDA and the INDIA bloc.
**X-Factors in Phase 1**
The first phase, which was the largest, covered 101 seats across 21 states. Tamil Nadu, a key state where the BJP aimed for significant growth, saw voting for all its 39 constituencies. This phase was also crucial for the NDA and the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra, as both coalitions have factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP supporting them.
**X-Factors in Phase 2**
In the second phase, 88 seats across 13 states were contested. Notably, the Mangalsutra became a prominent topic of discussion. Key battles in Kerala, North Bengal, South Karnataka, Rajasthan, and the Vidarbha region could indicate whether national issues like the CAA have taken precedence over local concerns such as water shortages. This phase was particularly significant for Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad and the Congress’s competition against its INDIA bloc partner, the CPM, in Kerala.
**X-Factors in Phase 3**
The third phase involved 94 seats in 11 states, including Gujarat, Karnataka, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh. This phase was crucial in determining whether the Congress-AAP alliance could challenge the BJP’s dominance in Gujarat and whether the BJP could maintain its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. In West Bengal, the focus was on seats bordering Bangladesh, highlighting the ongoing debate over the CAA.
**X-Factors in Phase 4**
With more than half of the Lok Sabha seats contested, the fourth phase saw voters in 96 constituencies across 10 states casting their ballots. This phase tested the BJP’s alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP against Jagan Mohan’s YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and the party’s performance in Telangana, where the Congress had previously ousted the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in the 2023 Assembly polls.
**X-Factors in Phase 5**
The fifth phase featured 49 seats across eight states, including Bihar, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Odisha. Notable contests included the Congress strongholds of Amethi and Raebareli, with Rahul Gandhi contesting the latter. In Amethi, Smriti Irani's challenge against Congress loyalist Kishori Lal Sharma was closely watched. Additionally, the Baramulla seat in Jammu and Kashmir, where Omar Abdullah of the National Conference faced a tough three-way contest, and the single seat of Ladakh, which was a test for the BJP's new candidate amid local protests and demands for increased autonomy, were key focal points.
Throughout these phases, various local and national issues have influenced voter behavior. The BJP’s initial campaign emphasized the goal of securing over 400 seats, with a particular focus on expanding its influence in the southern states. They also had to address Kshatriya discontent and two-term anti-incumbency. Conversely, the INDIA bloc sought to attract voters with numerous welfare promises, including the Congress’s pledge of Rs 1 lakh annually to women and debates over Mangalsutra and Muslim quotas have been prevalent.
Shifts in alliances and political dynamics, especially in states like Maharashtra and Bihar, have further complicated the election landscape. As Sardesai and Kanwal point out, these variables could significantly impact the final election results, making the last two phases and the eventual outcome on June 4 critical to watch.
