A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that the race between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump remains closely contested. The poll, conducted after Trump's felony conviction for falsifying business records, shows that 41% of voters would choose Biden if the election were held today, while 39% would support Trump.
Interestingly, the conviction seems to have had some impact on the Republican Party. Ten percent of registered Republican voters stated that they are now less likely to support Trump following his conviction, although 56% indicated that the case would not affect their vote. However, 35% of Republicans expressed increased support for Trump in light of the conviction, emphasizing a division within the party.
Among independent voters, 25% reported being less likely to support Trump due to the conviction, compared to 18% who expressed increased support. A majority (56%) stated that the conviction would not sway their decision.
The poll suggests that Trump's conviction could have implications for the upcoming election, particularly in key swing states. However, with Biden holding a marginal lead over Trump, the race remains highly competitive. Additionally, the election is still several months away, leaving room for potential shifts in voter sentiment.
Despite the conviction, opinions on Trump's legal fate are divided among registered voters. While 53% believe he should not be jailed for the hush money case, 46% think he should serve time. Furthermore, there is disagreement regarding the motivation behind the prosecution, with some viewing it as an effort to uphold the rule of law and others perceiving it as an attempt to prevent Trump's return to the White House.
Looking ahead, Trump's sentencing on July 11 and the pending trials for other criminal cases could further influence voter perceptions. A majority of registered voters (60%) believe it is important for the pending trials to take place before the election, highlighting the significance of ongoing legal proceedings in shaping the electoral landscape.
