Several exit polls suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be the second political party, after the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), expected to register a significant increase in support across various voter segments.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab will largely be shaped by political turncoats, multi-cornered contests, swing voters, caste dynamics, and the influence of various cults and deras. This is the first time the BJP is contesting the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab without any electoral alliances, and the party is optimistic about its prospects.
Regardless of whether the BJP will win more seats or maintain its previously won two seats, it is evident that the party is likely to increase its vote share in the state.
Understanding Punjab's caste dynamics is complex. The electorate is divided among various castes and communities, with 57% being Sikhs, including Dalits. Hindus make up 38.15% of the electorate, but they are not a homogeneous group, as many Hindus also practice Sikhism and Christianity. Dalits constitute 33% of the voters, divided into 39 sub-castes and various faiths.
Within the Dalit community, there are groups like the Sikh Scheduled Castes (SCs), Mazhabi Sikhs, and Hindu SCs. Other significant voter groups include Sikh/Hindu Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Sikh General, and Jat Sikhs.
Psephologists note that no political party has successfully polarized any specific community of voters. The Akali Dal has failed to polarize Sikhs, Hindus, or Dalits. However, political analysts believe that the BJP's efforts to navigate Punjab's intricate caste dynamics could result in increased votes for the party.
### Exit Poll Predictions
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll, along with other estimates, indicates that the BJP will be the second political party, after AAP, to register a substantial increase in voter support across various segments.
The exit poll suggests that both AAP and BJP are expected to attract more votes from Sikh SCs, Mazhabi Sikhs, Hindu SCs, Sikh/Hindu OBCs, Sikh General, and Jat Sikhs.
For Sikh SC voters, AAP is expected to see a 14% increase, followed by the BJP with a 10% rise. The Congress and Akali Dal are projected to lose 4% and 9% of the Dalit Sikh vote share, respectively.
The BJP also made efforts to woo the Mazhabi Sikh community during the campaign, even when farmer unions blocked their entry into villages. This might be reflected in the results, with the BJP expected to gain 13% of the Mazhabi Sikh votes, compared to AAP's 11% increase. The Mazhabi Sikh vote share for Akali Dal and Congress is expected to decline by 3% and 9%, respectively. Despite this decline, both Akali Dal and Congress are anticipated to hold 24% each of the Mazhabi Sikh vote share.
Due to initiatives like the construction of the Ram temple and a renewed focus on the Dalit and Hindu communities, the BJP is expected to secure 20% of the Hindu SC votes, while AAP is projected to gain an additional 9% of this community's vote share. The Congress and Akali Dal are expected to see a decline in their Hindu SC vote share by 7% and 12%, respectively.
### JBP's Growing Influence
Analysts are particularly intrigued by the exit poll estimates indicating that the BJP will increase its vote share among Sikh OBCs, Sikh General, and Jat Sikhs. The BJP is expected to increase its vote share among Sikh OBCs by 12%, Hindu OBCs by 20%, Sikh General by 13%, and Jat Sikhs by 10%. Similarly, AAP is expected to gain 9%, 13%, 8%, and 11% more votes from these respective groups.
In contrast, the Shiromani Akali Dal is projected to see a decline in vote share among Sikh OBCs by 5%, Hindu OBCs by 13%, Sikh General by 4%, and Jat Sikhs by 1%. The Congress, which won eight Lok Sabha seats in 2019, is also expected to lose vote share, with an estimated decline of 8% in Sikh OBC, 9% in Hindu OBC, 7% in Sikh General, and 10% in Jat vote share.
### Impact of Farmer Protests
The farmer protests have significantly impacted industrial and general business activities in Punjab and Haryana, causing frustration among industrialists and local traders. In Barnala, local traders clashed with farmer union leaders, and the blockade of the Shambhu border increased freight charges due to delays in the transportation of goods.
The BJP is expected to gain considerable support from the businessman Hindu community this time. The construction of the Lord Rama temple in Ayodhya and support from migrants from Uttar Pradesh are additional factors that could bolster the BJP's vote share.
### Hindu Voter Influence
Hindus constitute 38.5% of Punjab's electorate and represent the largest group of swing voters. The Hindu swing vote in Punjab is estimated to be up to 15%. A similar percentage of voters, including hardliners, typically do not support the ruling party or the opposition, favoring a third force instead.
Dalits, who influence 45 out of the total 117 assembly constituencies, are another crucial group.
Professor Pramod Kumar, chairperson of the Institute for Development and Communication (IDC), notes that despite the sizeable Hindu population, Punjab's voters do not vote based on religion. If they did, pro-Sikh religious parties like Akali Dal would not struggle for power. This nuanced understanding of Punjab's electorate highlights the complexity of the state's voting behavior.
