The recent Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan marked a significant setback for the BJP, which faced defeats in 11 out of 25 seats. This decline is stark considering the party's previous successes in winning all 25 seats in 2014 and 2019. The losses have been attributed to several organizational failures and internal conflicts within the party. Here are the key reasons behind the BJP's poor performance:
### 1. **Internal Party Conflicts and Sidelining of Key Leaders**
#### **Jat Community Discontent**
- **Ticket Distribution Controversies**: The BJP's decision to deny a ticket to sitting MP Rahul Kaswan in Churu, reportedly influenced by senior BJP leader Rajendra Rathore, led to significant dissatisfaction within the Jat community.
- **Impact on Neighboring Constituencies**: This discontent spread to Jhunjhunu and Sikar, where Congress and its allies secured decisive victories. In Jhunjhunu, Brijendra Ola of Congress defeated BJP’s Shubhkaran Chouhary. In Sikar, CPI(M)’s Amraram, with Congress's support, defeated BJP’s Sumedhanand Saraswati.
#### **Marginalization of Dr. Kirodi Lal Meena**
- **Community Discontent**: Dr. Kirodi Lal Meena felt sidelined after not being offered a significant ministerial position in the Rajasthan Cabinet, causing discontent within the Meena community.
- **Electoral Impact**: This led to BJP's defeats in Dausa, Tonk–Sawai Madhopur, and Bharatpur, regions with substantial Meena populations.
### 2. **Shifts in Community Support**
#### **Gujjar Community Shift**
- **Support for Congress**: During the Assembly elections, the Gujjar community opposed Congress candidates associated with former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. However, in the Lok Sabha elections, they supported Congress candidates aligned with Sachin Pilot, contributing to Congress's victories in Tonk–Sawai Madhopur, Dausa, and Bharatpur.
### 3. **Organizational Failures**
- **Inadequate Response to Assembly Election Results**: The BJP failed to learn from the Rajasthan Assembly elections results and did not strengthen its organizational structure in regions where it had previously lost.
- **Neglect of Key Regions**: The party's organizational weaknesses persisted, leading to repeated defeats in several constituencies during the Lok Sabha elections.
### 4. **Sidelining of Vasundhara Raje**
- **Limited Campaign Role**: Former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje was largely sidelined and relegated to campaigning in Jhalawar–Baran, where her son Dushyant was contesting. This diminished the party’s influence and effectiveness across other constituencies.
### 5. **Electoral Performance and Key Results**
- **Significant Losses**: The BJP’s setbacks included losses in constituencies like Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Nagaur, Dausa, Tonk–Sawai Madhopur, and Bharatpur.
- **Notable Defeats**: RLP Chief Hanuman Beniwal, allied with Congress, triumphed over BJP’s Jyoti Mirdha in Nagaur. In Jaipur Rural, the BJP narrowly lost despite significant efforts.
### 6. **Leadership Challenges**
- **Potential Shake-Up**: The significant loss in the Lok Sabha tally has sparked rumors about potential changes and accountability measures within the BJP, possibly including a shake-up at the top of the state leadership in Rajasthan.
Overall, the BJP’s organizational failures, internal conflicts, and shifts in community support played crucial roles in their poor performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan. The party will need to address these issues and strengthen its structure ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections.
