The recent elections were marked by a surprising outcome as the NDA alliance managed to secure only 293 seats, falling short of the anticipated 330+ majority. One significant factor behind this shift was the noticeable transition of farmers' support towards the opposition INDIA Bloc.
### Key Findings from the Axis My India Post-Poll Survey
#### Farmers' Voting Behavior
1. **2019 Lok Sabha Elections:**
  - **BJP:** Farmers' support for the Bharatiya Janata Party was strong, with 39 out of 100 farmers voting for the party.
  - **Congress:** The Indian National Congress received support from 19 out of 100 farmers.
  - **Allies:** Congress's allies garnered only 10% of the farmers' votes.
2. **2024 Lok Sabha Elections:**
  - **BJP:** The BJP's support among farmers decreased slightly to 37 out of 100.
  - **Congress:** The Congress saw a slight increase in support to 21 out of 100 farmers.
  - **Allies:** There was a significant rise in support for Congress's allies, with their vote share increasing from 10% in 2019 to 21% in 2024.
  Overall, the NDA alliance had a lead with 45% of the farmers' vote share in 2024, but this was a 3% drop from 2019. Conversely, the INDIA Bloc saw a substantial gain of 13% over the previous election, reaching 42% in 2024.
#### Farm Laborers' Voting Behavior
1. **2019 Lok Sabha Elections:**
  - **BJP:** Secured 32% of the farm laborers' vote share.
  - **Allies:** Received 7% of the vote share.
  - **Congress:** Garnered 19% of the farm laborers' votes.
  - **Allies:** Secured 7% of the vote share.
2. **2024 Lok Sabha Elections:**
  - **BJP:** Maintained its lead with 31% of the vote share among farm laborers.
  - **Allies:** Saw an increase to 11%.
  - **Congress:** Achieved a rise to 24% of the vote share.
  - **Allies:** Experienced a significant increase to 17% of the vote share.
#### Decline of Regional Parties
The survey also highlighted a notable decline in support for major regional parties:
- **Farmers:** Support for regional parties fell from 23% in 2019 to 13% in 2024.
- **Farm Laborers:** The vote share for regional parties dropped drastically from 35% in 2019 to 17% in 2024, a significant 18 percentage point decrease.
This data indicates that the decline in regional parties' support base has significantly contributed to the gains made by the INDIA Bloc in both farmers' and farm laborers' votes. The shift in support from these regional parties to the opposition coalition has played a crucial role in reshaping the political landscape in the recent elections.
