The Congress had predicted that the Opposition INDIA bloc would secure 295 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, with the NDA being restricted to 235 seats. However, exit polls released later painted a contrasting picture, projecting that the BJP-led NDA would secure more than 350 seats.
The Congress's projection came after a meeting of the Opposition alliance, where Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge stated the expected seat tally based on their assessment.
However, the exit polls indicated different numbers. For instance, a poll of five exit polls predicted the INDIA bloc's tally to be at 136 seats.
Here's how the Congress's assessment compared to what the exit polls indicated:
- In Uttar Pradesh, where the INDIA bloc is estimated to win 40 seats, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggested that the NDA would secure the majority with 64 to 67 seats, and the INDIA bloc would get only 8 to 12 seats.
- In Rajasthan, where the opposition estimated winning seven seats, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll aligned closely, predicting the INDIA bloc to win five to seven seats.
- In Maharashtra, the INDIA bloc was estimated to win 24 seats, which was not far off from the India Today-Axis My India exit poll prediction of 16 to 20 seats for the opposition grouping.
- However, in Bihar, the opposition's estimate of winning 25 seats contrasted sharply with the India Today-Axis My India exit poll projection of not more than 10 seats for the INDIA bloc.
- Similarly, in West Bengal, where the INDIA bloc is estimated to win at least 24 seats, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicted a strong performance by the BJP, winning 26 to 31 seats.
- The discrepancy continued in states like Punjab, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, and Karnataka, where the exit poll predictions varied from the opposition's estimates.
Ultimately, the accuracy of these projections will be determined when the election results are revealed on June 4, providing clarity on the people's mandate.
