Jammu and Kashmir is poised to hold Assembly elections for the first time in a decade, marking a significant shift in the region’s political landscape. These elections, scheduled to take place in three phases starting on September 18, with subsequent phases on September 25 and October 1, are a pivotal moment following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. The results of these elections will be announced on October 4, coinciding with the results from Haryana, which also votes on October 1.
The political climate in Jammu and Kashmir has been tense and complex since the revocation of Article 370, which ended the region's special status and bifurcated it into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. The elections are seen as a crucial step in re-establishing an elected government in a region that has been without one since the collapse of the Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP-BJP coalition government in 2018.
The Election Commission’s decision to hold these elections follows a Supreme Court ruling that mandated elections be held by September 30. The elections will be conducted in three phases: the first phase will cover 24 seats, the second phase will include 26 seats, and the third phase will address 40 seats. In the 2014 Assembly elections, voting was spread over five phases, reflecting the complexities and diverse geographical challenges of the region.
The recent delimitation exercise has increased the number of Assembly seats from 83 to 90, reflecting a shift that includes additional representation for the Jammu region. The Assembly will now have 43 seats allocated to Jammu and 47 to Kashmir, with reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes. This new arrangement also includes representation for the Kashmiri migrant community and a nominee from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir who had sought refuge in India post-1947.
The political dynamics have shifted since the last Assembly elections in 2014, which saw a fragmented result with no clear majority. The National Conference (NC), led by Omar Abdullah, and the Congress Party, which had previously been allies, saw their traditional dominance challenged by the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The PDP emerged as the single-largest party but could not secure an outright majority, leading to a coalition government with the BJP. The BJP’s support for the PDP was instrumental in forming the government, a coalition that eventually collapsed, leading to the current administrative vacuum.
While Jammu and Kashmir has seen elections for District Development Councils (DDCs) and Block Development Councils (BDCs) in recent years, these have not replaced the need for a full-fledged Assembly election. The Lok Sabha elections earlier in 2024 also reflected the political shifts, with significant voter turnout and a mix of results that included victories for the BJP, NC, and an independent candidate.
Amidst the political transition, the region has faced challenges, including a recent upsurge in terror attacks in the Jammu region. The security situation remains volatile, with an increase in attacks on security personnel and civilian casualties. This recent wave of violence underscores the ongoing security concerns in the region, which have complicated the political environment.
As Jammu and Kashmir prepares for its Assembly elections, the focus will be on how these changes will impact governance and stability in the region. The elections are expected to be a critical test of the new political landscape and could set the stage for future developments in Jammu and Kashmir’s governance and regional dynamics.
