Recent research conducted by IPE Global and Esri India has unveiled a troubling escalation in the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of extreme weather events in India. According to the study, which was released today at a National Symposium on climate extremes, over 84% of Indian districts are now vulnerable to extreme heat waves. Additionally, 70% of these districts are also experiencing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.
The study highlights a dramatic 15-fold increase in extreme heat wave days during the March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August-September (JJAS) months over the past 30 years. More alarmingly, the last decade alone has seen a staggering 19-fold increase in these extreme heat wave days. This surge reflects a broader trend of escalating climate extremes.
Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the author of the study, underscored the severity of these climate shifts. "The current trend of catastrophic extreme heat and rainfall events is largely driven by a 0.6°C rise in global temperatures over the past century. The increasing momentum of El Niño is exacerbating these conditions, leading to more frequent and severe events in India," Mohanty stated. He pointed to recent incidents, such as the Kerala landslides caused by erratic rainfall, as evidence of the urgent need for proactive measures.
The study also reveals that India’s monsoon seasons are becoming increasingly marked by extended summer-like conditions, with significant implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. It notes that around 80% of the Indian population could be highly exposed to extreme weather events by 2036.
Rajendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, emphasized the critical need for a data-driven approach to address these climate challenges. "The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves, combined with intense precipitation, are profoundly affecting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. A comprehensive, data-driven strategy is crucial for making informed policy decisions, enhancing climate adaptation, and building resilience," Kumar said.
The study identifies several states as hotspots for extreme heat stress and erratic rainfall, including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Manipur. It also highlights that districts along both the eastern and western coasts are experiencing more unpredictable rainfall events.
To address these risks, the study recommends the establishment of a heat risk observatory (HRO) to monitor and assess heat risks at a detailed level. Additionally, it suggests creating risk financing instruments and appointing heat-risk champions within district disaster management committees to prioritize and coordinate heat-risk mitigation efforts.
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