India's relations with Bangladesh have reached a new chapter following the recent resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a leader who had been a steadfast ally of India. Sheikh Hasina's departure from power has significant implications for the bilateral relationship between the two countries, which had flourished under her leadership.
Sheikh Hasina, who had spent six years in Delhi as a "secret resident," was well-acquainted with India's political landscape, and Delhi had also developed a strong understanding of her. Her tenure as Prime Minister was marked by substantial progress in Indo-Bangladeshi relations, driven by her sensitivity to India's security concerns and her efforts to resolve long-standing border issues. The relationship between India and Bangladesh saw unprecedented growth under Hasina, with collaborative achievements in various areas including border agreements and economic cooperation.
However, Hasina's forced resignation following widespread protests and unrest in Bangladesh poses challenges for India. The protests, which escalated from anti-quota agitation to demands for Hasina's ouster, highlighted growing public discontent. The violence and fatalities, including the killing of student protesters, contributed to her fall from power.
For India, Hasina's departure means recalibrating its diplomatic strategy. During her tenure, India's ties with Bangladesh had been managed smoothly, with Hasina's administration showing a clear alignment with Indian interests. From the Congress government under Manmohan Singh to the Modi-led NDA government, Hasina's leadership saw continuous support from India, both politically and economically. Her visit to India for bilateral talks soon after her re-election in 2024 underscored the close ties between the two nations.
Sheikh Hasina had been a key ally for India, particularly in addressing security concerns. Her administration worked to limit anti-Indian activities in Bangladesh and cooperated with India on significant projects, such as the Teesta Reservoir Project. This project, strategically important for India, faced scrutiny from China, and Hasina’s administration was seen as a bulwark against Chinese influence.
Under Hasina, India and Bangladesh also resolved a historical land boundary issue, further solidifying their relationship. India supported Bangladesh's development, helping with infrastructure projects and energy supplies, and countered Chinese initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by partnering with Bangladesh in development efforts.
In contrast, the period when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) led by Begum Khaleda Zia was in power was marked by heightened anti-India sentiment and anti-India activities. The BNP's stance against India, coupled with its alliances with groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, created friction between the two countries. This era saw the rise of insurgent groups that affected India’s northeastern states, and anti-India rhetoric was a significant feature of BNP’s political strategy.
While Sheikh Hasina balanced relations with both India and China, her tenure saw significant support from India, which was perceived by some in Bangladesh as favouritism. This perception was exacerbated by Hasina’s concessions to India, such as port access and railway corridors, which led some to believe that these were attempts to maintain Indian support.
As Bangladesh transitions to a military-backed caretaker government amid ongoing protests, India faces a period of uncertainty. The caretaker administration’s approach to Indo-Bangladeshi relations will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the bilateral ties. India will need to navigate the evolving political landscape in Dhaka while managing its interests and maintaining stability in the region.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has briefed Prime Minister Modi on the situation, emphasizing the need for continued diplomatic engagement. India's approach will involve working with whoever is in power in Bangladesh, though the level of comfort and cooperation may differ from the established rapport with Sheikh Hasina. The evolving political scenario in Bangladesh will require India to stay vigilant and adapt its diplomatic strategies accordingly.
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