The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently released a list of 30 pathogens identified as potential triggers for the next global pandemic. This comprehensive list, developed with input from over 200 scientists over two years, highlights the pathogens considered most likely to cause a serious public health crisis.
The selection process involved evaluating a total of 1,652 pathogen species, predominantly viruses, along with some bacteria. This rigorous assessment aimed to prioritize the pathogens with the highest potential to spark a global outbreak.
Among the pathogens on the list are several well-known viruses and bacteria. For instance, it includes coronaviruses such as Sarbecovirus, which encompasses SARS-CoV-2—the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic—and Merbecovirus, which includes the virus causing Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). The updated list now includes entire subgenera rather than just specific viruses, reflecting a broader concern about related pathogens.
Other notable inclusions are the monkeypox virus, which led to a global outbreak in 2022 and continues to circulate in Central Africa, and the variola virus, which causes smallpox. Despite the eradication of smallpox in 1980, the virus remains a priority due to the cessation of routine vaccinations and its potential use as a biological weapon.
Influenza A viruses, including the H5 subtype linked to recent outbreaks in U.S. cattle, are also featured on the list. In addition, newly added bacterial pathogens include those responsible for cholera, plague, dysentery, diarrhea, and pneumonia.
The list also highlights two rodent-borne viruses due to their potential to infect humans and spread between people. The Nipah virus, which is transmitted by bats and remains highly lethal with no effective treatments, continues to be a significant concern.
Climate change and urbanization are factors that contribute to the increased risk of these pathogens crossing into human populations. The study underscores that many of these pathogens, although currently confined to specific regions, have the potential to spread globally.
Naomi Forrester-Soto, a virologist at the Pirbright Institute in the UK who contributed to the analysis, emphasizes that no single location is most at risk. Instead, the spread of these pathogens is influenced by a range of factors including environmental changes and human activities. The priority list aims to direct resources and research efforts towards the most pressing threats, addressing critical knowledge gaps and preparing for future public health challenges.
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