Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh's caretaker government, met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on September 25, during the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The central topic of their discussion was the revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a dormant regional grouping that includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and five other South Asian countries—Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and the Maldives. India plays a pivotal role within SAARC, and its cooperation is vital for the group's success. However, India has firmly rejected the idea of reviving SAARC, primarily due to its strained relations with Pakistan, fueled by Pakistan's continued support for terrorism targeting India.
This diplomatic tension between India and Pakistan escalated notably after the 2016 terrorist attack on an Indian Army camp in Uri, Jammu and Kashmir, in which 19 Indian soldiers lost their lives. In the aftermath of the Uri attack, India made a clear and firm decision to withdraw from the SAARC summit that was supposed to take place in Islamabad in late 2016. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka quickly followed India's lead, effectively halting the SAARC summit and causing the grouping to remain dormant ever since.
India’s position on SAARC has remained resolute over the years. New Delhi has consistently conveyed that it cannot participate in any regional cooperation initiative while terrorism emanating from Pakistan persists. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has repeatedly underscored this stance, stating that India will not tolerate a scenario in which "terrorism by night and trade by day" is allowed to continue. This phrase encapsulates India’s long-standing frustration with Pakistan's dual approach of promoting regional trade while simultaneously supporting militant activities that threaten India’s national security.
Despite these hurdles, Pakistan has not abandoned its efforts to revive SAARC. Over the years, Pakistani leaders have made repeated attempts to breathe new life into the organization, including proposals for virtual SAARC summits, such as the one suggested in 2022. However, India has consistently declined to participate, standing firm on its anti-terrorism stance.
The recent meeting between Yunus and Sharif marks a notable shift in Bangladesh's diplomatic approach. Under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh had aligned with India in its withdrawal from the 2016 SAARC summit, and Dhaka showed little interest in reviving the grouping thereafter. However, since Muhammad Yunus took charge as the head of Bangladesh's caretaker government, there appears to be a renewed interest in SAARC from Dhaka's side. Yunus has openly advocated for the revival of SAARC, framing it as a potential platform for fostering regional cooperation and economic growth. In an August 2024 statement, Yunus suggested that SAARC could become a model of cooperation akin to the European Union, emphasizing the need for mutual benefits and collective action among member nations.
During their meeting, Sharif expressed Pakistan’s willingness to support Yunus in his quest to revive SAARC. According to reports from the *Dhaka Tribune*, Sharif even hinted at potential economic collaborations, including Pakistani investments in Bangladesh’s textile and leather sectors, indicating that economic considerations are a driving force behind the push to bring SAARC back to life.
The reasons for Bangladesh and Pakistan’s eagerness to revive SAARC are closely tied to the economic challenges both countries face. Pakistan's economy is in dire straits, grappling with high inflation, a depreciating currency, and a ballooning fiscal deficit. In recent years, Pakistan has been heavily reliant on financial aid and loans from international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as from Gulf nations, to meet its day-to-day financial obligations. The Pakistani government sees SAARC as a potential avenue for enhancing regional trade, which could provide much-needed economic relief.
Bangladesh, although it enjoyed significant economic growth during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, has also encountered economic difficulties in recent years. Corruption and mismanagement are often cited as contributing factors to Bangladesh’s economic slowdown. As a result, Yunus views SAARC as a platform that could reinvigorate trade and boost economic cooperation in the region, which could, in turn, help stabilize Bangladesh’s economy.
However, while Bangladesh and Pakistan may see the revival of SAARC as an economic lifeline, India's perspective is markedly different. India is currently one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world, with a GDP growth rate exceeding 7% annually. Global economic forecasters, such as S&P, have predicted that India will become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030-31. India’s strong economic position allows it to participate in high-profile global forums, including the G20 and BRICS, which offer India significant opportunities for trade, investment, and diplomatic engagement on the world stage. Given this context, India does not rely on SAARC for trade and can engage bilaterally with its neighbors when necessary.
Moreover, India's economic growth and geopolitical influence mean that it can afford to stand firm on its principles, particularly when it comes to security concerns. The Indian government sees little value in participating in a regional organization where one of the key members, Pakistan, continues to harbor and support terrorism that threatens Indian citizens. For New Delhi, the trade and economic benefits that SAARC might offer are far outweighed by the security risks associated with engaging in any form of cooperation with Pakistan under the current circumstances.
In conclusion, the revival of SAARC is a complex issue, shaped by both economic and security considerations. While Bangladesh and Pakistan are keen on resurrecting the regional grouping in hopes of boosting trade and economic ties, India remains firm in its refusal to participate as long as Pakistan continues to support terrorism. For India, participation in SAARC offers limited economic benefits, given its involvement in more influential global platforms. As a result, unless there is a fundamental shift in Pakistan’s stance on terrorism, the prospects for SAARC’s revival remain uncertain.
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