In an inventive twist on election forecasting, a local bakery in Pennsylvania has turned cookie sales into a barometer for the 2024 presidential race. The bakery, managed by Kathleen Lochel, has crafted a unique polling method by offering cookies decorated in the colors associated with the major candidates: red for Donald Trump and blue for Kamala Harris. Each sale is counted as a "vote," providing a whimsical yet intriguing glimpse into voter sentiment.
The bakery's cookie poll has captured significant attention as it shows a striking lead for Trump. By Friday morning, Trump cookies had outsold Harris cookies by a substantial margin, with 5,200 red cookies sold compared to just 500 blue ones. Lochel has been actively updating her followers on social media, revealing that her bakery's Trump cookies have been so popular that they sold out for the weekend. Notably, she mentioned that only seven blue packages have been shipped within Pennsylvania, suggesting a strong local preference for Trump.
Lochel attributes the overwhelming demand for Trump cookies to widespread frustration with the current administration’s handling of economic issues. "A lot of people are upset right now about the cost of things, they’re venting to us,” she told Fox & Friends First. This feedback reflects a broader discontent with high living costs and economic policies under the Biden-Harris administration.
This is not the bakery's first foray into election forecasting. Lochel launched the cookie poll tradition in 2012, which has since gained a reputation for its accuracy in predicting election results. Historically, the cookie poll has successfully anticipated the outcomes of three out of four presidential elections. However, in 2020, despite a higher number of Trump cookies sold, the actual election result favored Joe Biden, marking a rare miss for the cookie poll.
Lochel’s idea for the cookie poll emerged during the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic as a creative way to engage with the community and offer a light-hearted yet meaningful political activity. The popularity of the poll has grown, with orders now coming in from across the United States. According to Lochel, about one-third of the cookies are shipped nationwide, with many customers sharing their concerns about the current economic climate when placing their orders.
Despite the competitive nature of the poll, Lochel maintains her bakery's stance of neutrality. “We love all,” she asserts, emphasizing that the cookie poll is intended to be a fun and inclusive way for people to express their political preferences.
While the bakery's cookie poll indicates a strong preference for Trump, national polls present a different picture. Recent surveys show Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a five-point margin, highlighting a disparity between local sentiment as captured by the cookie sales and broader national polling data. This contrast underscores the diverse methods of gauging public opinion and the unique role that community-driven initiatives like the cookie poll play in the political landscape.
