Democrats, under the leadership of Kamala Harris, are strategically centering their campaign efforts on Mark Robinson, the beleaguered Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina. This tactic aims to capitalize on Robinson's numerous controversies as a key factor in their strategy to win over voters in a state that has traditionally leaned Republican in recent years. Robinson, who has received a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump, has found himself engulfed in a series of scandals that have prompted significant concern among Republican voters and party officials alike. Among these controversies are explicit posts attributed to him and a notable decline in support from the GOP, particularly as several prominent Republican figures have distanced themselves from him in light of these revelations.
As the campaign unfolds, Harris has made Robinson a central talking point during interactions with voters and volunteers, who are engaging in conversations both over the phone and in door-to-door canvassing efforts. This focus is echoed in the messaging employed by Democrats, who are brandishing signs that warn of the perceived dangers posed by the combination of Trump and Robinson’s extreme viewpoints during press conferences and campaign events. Moreover, mobile billboard trucks are traversing key urban areas, warning that Robinson, who also serves as the state’s lieutenant governor, is “unhinged,” further amplifying the Democratic narrative. In addition, Harris is executing a new television advertising campaign that underscores Donald Trump's history of lavishly praising Robinson, effectively linking the two in voters' minds and presenting them as part of a larger, troubling pattern of extremism.
The political landscape in North Carolina is historically challenging for Democrats, who have not secured a presidential win in the state since Barack Obama’s successful campaign in 2008. That victory remains a standout achievement, representing the only Democratic win in the past half-century at the presidential level. Yet, the dynamics have shifted since Trump narrowly won North Carolina by a mere 1.3 percentage points in the last election cycle, making the state one of the most competitive battlegrounds as Election Day approaches. Democrats are banking on the idea that Robinson's significant baggage, stemming from his scandals, can provide Harris with the critical leverage needed to reshape the electoral narrative in her favor and potentially alter the trajectory of the gubernatorial race.
The ramifications of a potential Harris victory in North Carolina extend beyond local implications, as both political parties recognize that such an outcome would greatly complicate Trump’s roadmap to re-election. During a recent rally, Trump himself acknowledged the stakes involved, stating, “We won North Carolina twice, and we gotta win it one more time,” emphasizing the state’s importance in his campaign strategy. However, in a notable move, Trump refrained from mentioning Robinson during his remarks, a decision that highlights the growing discomfort within the Republican Party regarding their gubernatorial candidate, particularly in light of the ongoing controversies surrounding him.
Democrats are fully committed to ensuring that Robinson’s scandals remain at the forefront of their messaging, seeking to leverage this narrative to make Trump’s connection with Robinson a liability for his campaign. In light of a detailed CNN report that uncovered explicit posts made by Robinson on a pornography website, the GOP’s support for him has significantly waned. The Republican Governors Association (RGA) has ceased running advertisements on Robinson’s behalf, and influential figures within the party, such as Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, have publicly announced their decision to withdraw their support for Robinson, further illustrating the party's fracturing.
Despite the mounting pressure, Trump has yet to retract his endorsement of Robinson, opting instead to continue embracing him as a political ally. Interestingly, Robinson has become an increasingly invisible figure at Trump’s recent events in North Carolina, with both Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, opting to bypass any mention of him during their speeches. This pattern of avoidance has led to a perception of Robinson as someone who is increasingly sidelined within his own party, highlighting the tensions and challenges faced by Republican candidates in the state. For instance, during a recent campaign stop in Charlotte, RNC Chair Michael Whatley notably omitted Robinson from a list of key state officials, prompting audible reactions from the audience that did not go unnoticed.
The atmosphere surrounding Robinson’s candidacy is fraught with concern among Republicans, many of whom fear that the scandal will have broader implications not only for the gubernatorial race but also for other candidates lower on the ballot. Veteran Republican operative Dallas Woodhouse expressed that the potential fallout from Robinson’s controversies is indeed alarming, suggesting that it could chill support for congressional candidates and other state-level races, as the GOP battles to maintain its supermajority in both chambers of the state legislature.
On the Democratic side, there are still lingering doubts among some within Harris's inner circle about whether Robinson's scandalous behavior will be sufficient to sway North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes toward their candidate. While Democrats have long eyed the state as a critical opportunity since Obama’s victory, history has shown the difficulty of securing wins in North Carolina, as even Obama could not replicate his success in the subsequent 2012 election cycle.
Nonetheless, some within Harris's campaign are optimistic, pointing to the demographic shifts occurring in North Carolina. The state's growing suburban and college-educated population, which trends increasingly away from Trump, offers a promising avenue for Democratic outreach. Additionally, the expanding Hispanic population and a robust base of African American voters remain core components of the Democratic coalition, further reinforcing their campaign's potential strength. Harris's team is hopeful that by continuing to spotlight Robinson’s controversies, they can compel some potential Trump voters to reconsider their options or even abstain from voting altogether. The campaign is also keen on attracting some of the 250,000 voters who previously backed Trump’s Republican rival, Nikki Haley, during the March primary in the state.
Dan Kanninen, the battleground state director for Harris's campaign, articulated this strategy, stating, “What is new now is the attention on Robinson is higher. There’s a greater public recognition that he’s so far outside the mainstream, as is Donald Trump, that I think voters now have an opportunity to connect those dots in a way that could stick at a time when voters are starting to pay attention and make decisions.”
In the heart of North Carolina, at events like Vance's recent appearance at Charlotte's Freedom House Church, signs of concern regarding Robinson’s standing are becoming evident, though no one openly suggested that his troubles would dissuade them from supporting Trump. Greg Mills, a Republican school board candidate, acknowledged the uncertainty of the presidential race, stating, “I can’t say I’m confident. It's close.” Despite his concerns, he expressed his inclination to support Robinson, maintaining that the gubernatorial candidate’s denials of the allegations hold weight for him. Mills also reaffirmed his unwavering support for Trump, despite the controversies swirling around Robinson.
Conversely, Kathy Goodman, a 74-year-old resident of Harrisburg, voiced her uncertainty about whether she would vote for Robinson, yet she firmly maintained that Trump should not bear the consequences of Robinson’s actions. “He should not be held accountable for what Mark Robinson did,” Goodman asserted. “They’re two different individuals.” This perspective highlights the complexities and challenges within Republican voter sentiments regarding party loyalty and individual candidate accountability.
Beyond the controversies surrounding Robinson, Democrats are bolstered by a robust ground game that features 27 campaign offices statewide, staffed by more than 250 paid field staff and supported by over 26,000 volunteers. This grassroots infrastructure has seen significant growth, particularly after Harris took a more prominent role in the campaign to energize the Democratic base in North Carolina. In contrast, the Trump campaign has delegated much of its voter outreach efforts to outside groups, focusing instead on "voter integrity" monitoring as voting approaches, leaving them potentially vulnerable to a more energized Democratic ground operation.
At a recent volunteer center in Raleigh, Democratic volunteer Nancy Watson, 43, spent her lunch break making phone calls to potential Harris supporters, reflecting a broader commitment among volunteers to engage with the electorate. “You never know what motivates potential voters,” she remarked, acknowledging the unpredictability of voter behavior in the current political climate. Meanwhile, Vernon Daughtry, a 66-year-old volunteer who has retired from careers in both teaching and nursing, expressed a strong desire for Robinson to remain on the ballot, saying, “I’m glad that he’s still on the ticket. I hope he brings Trump down.” His enthusiasm underscores the optimism among some Democrats that Robinson’s continued presence could ultimately facilitate a shift in voter sentiment.
In summary, as the campaign heats up, Kamala Harris’s team is making a concerted effort to use the controversies surrounding Mark Robinson as a linchpin for their strategy to win North Carolina. The state is shaping up to be a key battleground, with both parties recognizing the stakes involved. The Democrats’ focus on Robinson, combined with their extensive grassroots efforts and changing demographics, creates a challenging landscape for Republicans as they grapple with the fallout from their candidate’s scandals. With Election Day approaching, the strategies employed by both Harris and the Trump campaign will be critical as they seek to sway voters and secure a victory in this increasingly competitive state. The next few weeks will undoubtedly reveal how effective these strategies are and whether the Democrats can indeed turn Robinson’s controversies into a decisive advantage at the polls.
