For the last thirty years, the relationship between India and the United States has significantly deepened, a trend that has persisted regardless of whether the US presidency is held by a Republican or a Democrat. This observation comes from Aparna Pande, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, who suggests that the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election on November 5 might not substantially affect the dynamics between the two nations.
According to Pande, this enduring relationship is evident from the fact that every American president since Bill Clinton has made a visit to India, and similarly, every Indian Prime Minister over the past three and a half decades has visited the United States multiple times. This high level of diplomatic engagement underscores the strategic importance of India to the US national security strategy. Pande notes that the last three national security strategies have identified India as a key partner, crucial for countering the rise of China and strengthening collaborations in both economic and defense sectors.
Currently, under the Biden administration, the focus has been on maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region and supporting the operation of the Quad alliance, which includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Pande highlights that the Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to counterbalance China’s influence in the region, was initially established during Trump's presidency. She argues that if Trump were to return to office, this strategy would likely remain unchanged, as Trump views China as a primary threat and rival. The Quad alliance, revived under Trump, would continue to be a prominent element of his strategic approach.
In the event that the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, wins the presidency, Pande anticipates that the geopolitical emphasis on India would remain aligned with the current administration’s priorities. However, she notes that trade policies could see some divergence. During his previous tenure, Trump adopted a hardline stance on trade, imposing high tariffs and withdrawing from the General System of Preferences, which had facilitated trade with developing nations. If re-elected, Trump is expected to continue this approach, potentially making trade relations with the US more complex and challenging.
On the other hand, Pande believes that under a Harris administration, trade issues are unlikely to be as problematic. Nonetheless, there might be a shift in focus toward addressing concerns related to democracy, human rights, and religious freedom. While these areas might come under scrutiny, the fundamental strategic partnership between India and the US is expected to endure, reflecting a deep-seated collaboration that transcends political administrations. This enduring relationship highlights the strategic alignment and mutual interests that have characterized India-US ties over the decades, irrespective of changes in leadership or political climates.
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