Corruption allegations and a noticeable lack of sympathy for Arvind Kejriwal during the recent general elections in Delhi have significantly tarnished the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) image as a "party with a difference." In an attempt to regain lost ground, boost his public image, and improve the party's chances in the upcoming elections, Kejriwal resigned as Delhi Chief Minister, with Atishi being appointed as his successor.
The resignation has been perceived by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a validation of their accusations against Kejriwal, potentially bolstering their position in the state elections. Meanwhile, the Congress, despite being part of the opposition INDIA bloc with the AAP, sees an opportunity to revive its presence in Delhi. Historically, the AAP has grown at the expense of the Congress, appealing to complementary voter blocs that include Dalits, the poor, and minorities—groups that typically support anti-BJP candidates.
According to the India Today Mood of the Nation survey, Kejriwal remains one of India's most popular chief ministers, yet his support has dwindled from 19.6% in February 2024 to 13.8% by August 2024. Additionally, public satisfaction with his leadership has dropped from 58% in August 2023 to 44% in August 2024, reflecting the impact of ongoing corruption allegations on his reputation.
A recent India Today Political Stock Exchange survey reveals that 49% of respondents believe Kejriwal should have resigned before facing imprisonment, while 40% think he should have dissolved the Assembly. Interestingly, even among AAP supporters, a significant number—32%, 33%, and 19%—share these sentiments. Kejriwal, an astute political strategist, has recognized this shift in public opinion and is now aiming to regain favor in the court of public perception.
When asked about the potential impact of his resignation on his "kattar imandaar" (staunchly honest) image, public opinion was sharply divided, with 37% supporting the idea that it had been affected. Meanwhile, 32% felt his resignation would strengthen the BJP's position, while 30% believed it would benefit the AAP.
In Delhi, voting behavior tends to diverge between state and national elections, with voters often favoring regional parties in state contests and national parties during general elections. In the 2024 general elections, the BJP managed to retain all seven parliamentary seats despite an alliance between the Congress and AAP. The BJP received 54% of the votes, while the AAP garnered 24%, and Congress obtained 19%. This marked a significant decline for the AAP, which lost 30% of its votes compared to the 2020 Vidhan Sabha elections, while the BJP and Congress gained 16% and 15%, respectively.
The analysis indicates that about 30% of voters in Delhi are not ideologically tied to any particular party and often switch their allegiance based on the election context. This demographic will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the AAP's bid for re-election in 2025. If the AAP can capture the support of even half of these voters, it could result in a tightly contested race with both the AAP and BJP potentially achieving 39% of the vote share.
Historically, when the AAP and Congress entered into an alliance for general elections, concerns arose regarding whether their voter bases would effectively transfer to each other's candidates. Initially, AAP's political platform was explicitly anti-Congress. However, due to shared voter demographics—primarily among Dalits, minorities, and the economically disadvantaged—the two parties have now positioned themselves as concurrent forces against the BJP. This shift has resulted in a complete transfer of votes between the parties during the recent elections.
Despite being part of the INDIA bloc, the AAP's relationship with Congress is complex and often contentious. Recent remarks from Congress members, including Sandeep Dikshit, criticized Kejriwal's resignation, suggesting it was more about political maneuvering than genuine concern for governance. Meanwhile, AAP leaders have reciprocated by labeling Congress as an adversary that perpetually undermines their party.
A resurgent Congress could potentially siphon off crucial sections of Dalit, Muslim, and poor voters from the AAP, posing a serious challenge as the latter prepares for the next Delhi elections. This trend echoes previous experiences, such as in the 2017 municipal elections, where despite the AAP's success in the 2015 Vidhan Sabha elections, it lost ground to the BJP due to a surge in Congress support.
If Congress were to gain a modest five percent vote share from the AAP, it could result in a loss of ten seats for the AAP, though it may still secure a majority with 52 seats. Conversely, a ten percent transfer could diminish AAP's representation further, bringing them down to 47 seats. The dynamics become increasingly complex if both the Congress and BJP manage to secure additional votes from the AAP.
In essence, the AAP cannot solely rely on Congress to undermine its prospects; it must also attract anti-incumbency votes to maintain its stronghold in Delhi. The stakes are particularly high for the AAP, as the city serves as a critical base for its broader national ambitions. Winning in Delhi would not only reaffirm its political legitimacy but also allow it to match the record of former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, who served three consecutive terms. As the party navigates these turbulent waters, its ability to address internal challenges, bolster voter trust, and counteract corruption allegations will be crucial for its electoral success in 2025.
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