Ruben Gallego, Arizona's Democratic Senate candidate, is on a mission to secure a fourth consecutive Democratic victory in a state that has increasingly leaned toward the party in recent years. He is strategically targeting an unexpected demographic in this critical election: undecided Republicans, including some Donald Trump supporters who may be hesitant to cast their votes for his GOP rival, Kari Lake. With the Senate control hanging in the balance, the stakes couldn't be higher for both candidates as they concentrate their campaigns heavily on border security, a pivotal issue that resonates deeply with voters across the political spectrum.
Gallego recognizes that winning over undecided Republicans is essential for him to succeed in this challenging race, which will undoubtedly test the staying power of Trump's coattails. In an era marked by a significant increase in partisan loyalty, ticket-splitting voters—those who may support candidates from different parties for different offices—are becoming increasingly rare. Nevertheless, these voters could prove crucial in determining which party emerges victorious in controlling the Senate.Â
For Gallego, this strategy includes appealing to voters like Winfield Morris, a 62-year-old Republican farmer and rancher who supports Trump for the presidency but has serious reservations about voting for Lake in the Senate race. "I don’t like Kari Lake, and I’m not going to vote for her," Morris candidly expressed, voicing his frustration with her political approach and questioning her qualifications for office. Despite his support for Trump, Morris remains cautious about endorsing Gallego but is nonetheless open to learning more about him and considering a vote for the Democrat if his concerns are adequately addressed. In fact, he has indicated that he might even write in the name of a Republican candidate he respects, such as Mark Lamb, who managed to garner 40% of the vote in the Senate primary, despite being vastly outspent and overshadowed by Lake.
The challenges for Democrats to retain control of the Senate are formidable, especially in deeply red states where traditional campaign strategies may not suffice. However, certain races feature established incumbents who possess proven track records, which can help bridge the partisan divide. For example, an advertisement supporting Montana Senator Jon Tester—one of the most endangered Democrats in the Senate—showcases Republicans crossing party lines to support him, emphasizing his collaborative efforts with Trump during his tenure.
In contrast, Trump remains a dominant figure in states like Ohio, where the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno could prove highly competitive. The effort to win over ticket-splitters is inherently more challenging for less established candidates, but some are attempting to navigate this complex landscape. In North Dakota, longshot Democratic Senate candidate Katrina Christiansen recently released an ad narrated by a rancher who states that he supports Trump but refuses to back Republican Senator Kevin Cramer.
In swing-state North Carolina, the dynamics shift further. Republican Mark Robinson's campaign for governor has been struggling following reports linking him to disturbing posts on an online adult site. In response, the Trump campaign is relying on ticket-splitting voters to help buoy their chances, hoping that GOP voters who abandon Robinson will still remain loyal to Trump in a state that he desperately needs to win.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Gallego is optimistic about replicating the successful Democratic models that have led to narrow statewide victories since Trump's first victory, including those achieved by Senators Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly, as well as Governor Katie Hobbs, who managed to defeat Lake in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Gallego is benefiting from a robust support system, as Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans in advertising for this race. According to AdImpact, which closely monitors campaign ad spending, Democrats have allocated a staggering $60.7 million to the race, while Republicans have only managed to spend $16.4 million. Furthermore, Democrats have an impressive $35.7 million in advertising spots reserved between now and Election Day, compared to just $11.7 million reserved by GOP-affiliated groups.
Gallego's strategy relies on maintaining unity among Democratic supporters, winning a majority of independent voters, and securing a small yet crucial segment of Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist based in California, emphasizes that having a significant number of ticket-splitters in contemporary politics is a rare occurrence. He asserts that voters are increasingly adhering to party loyalty, particularly with Trump leading the ticket, and that losing the presidency carries a different weight than losing a Senate seat.
The campaign messaging from both Gallego and Lake reflects the understanding of how vital undecided Republicans are to the outcome of this contentious race. Both candidates are running ads that place a heavy emphasis on border security, which is an issue of critical importance to many Arizonans. In Lake's case, her messaging revolves almost exclusively around this topic. Gallego has even taken the opportunity to gently criticize the Biden-Harris administration in one of his frequently aired ads, stating, "Arizonans know — on the border, there is no plan." Notably, he opted not to appear with Vice President Kamala Harris during her recent visit to the Arizona-Mexico border, indicating a deliberate effort to separate himself from the administration’s policies.
Additionally, both candidates are showcasing endorsements from Republicans to bolster their appeal to undecided voters. Gallego features a businessman in his ads who identifies as a Republican and refers to Gallego as a "man of principles." On the other hand, Lake consistently reminds voters of Trump's endorsement, which serves to reinforce her position as a close ally of the former president and her unwavering support for his claims regarding widespread electoral fraud in the 2020 election.
The complexities of divided loyalties among traditional Republican groups frequently emerge during campaign events. A notable instance occurred when the Arizona Police Association, which represents thousands of law enforcement officers throughout the state, endorsed Gallego, citing his distinguished background as a Marine combat veteran. Just three days prior, Trump had called the association’s president, Justin Harris, to the stage at a rally outside Phoenix, underscoring the intricate dynamics of loyalty within the Republican ranks.
Gallego remains hopeful that more endorsements of this nature will come his way, and history provides some evidence to support his optimism. In 2020, Republican Senate candidate Martha McSally privately expressed concern that she was failing to connect with Trump voters, which ultimately played out in the election results. While Trump lost Arizona by a narrow margin of just 10,457 votes—amounting to a mere 0.03 percentage points—McSally lost to Mark Kelly by a more significant 78,806 votes. This indicates that tens of thousands of voters chose to split their tickets, supporting Biden at the top of the ballot while favoring Kelly for the Senate.
Some political observers suggest that Gallego embodies the characteristics of a candidate who could replicate the successful path forged by Kelly, a tough-talking former astronaut known for his pragmatic approach. "Ruben is a legitimate tough guy," stated Stacy Pearson, a Phoenix-based Democratic strategist who previously ran a successful campaign to oust Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio in 2016, which relied heavily on attracting voters who had supported Trump at the top of the ticket. "He’s an Iraq War vet. He is someone who sincerely pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and that story resonates very much with voters in this Western state."
As the campaign moves forward, the race between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake for the Senate seat in Arizona serves as a critical test of the shifting political landscape in the state and the nation at large. The dynamics of this race reflect the complexities of American electoral politics today, where traditional party loyalties are increasingly challenged by individual candidates' narratives and voter sentiments. Gallego's ability to appeal to undecided Republicans and independent voters while rallying Democratic support could ultimately determine the balance of power in the Senate and significantly shape the future of both parties as they navigate the 2024 election season.
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