The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing a significant setback in Haryana as exit polls suggest the Congress party is on the verge of making a strong comeback after a decade out of power. According to the CVoter exit poll, the Congress is expected to win between 50-58 out of the 90 Assembly seats, whereas the BJP is predicted to secure only 20-28 seats. This marks a sharp decline in support for the BJP, which has governed the state for two consecutive terms. The reasons behind this shift in voter sentiment are multifaceted, with a combination of governance failures, unfulfilled promises, and increasing public discontent driving the electorate away from the ruling party.
One of the primary reasons for the BJP’s decline is the pervasive anti-incumbency sentiment that developed during its ten years in power. The BJP leadership in Haryana struggled to address core issues that were critical to the electorate, and this failure culminated in the removal of Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister in March 2024. The party hoped that replacing the leadership would assuage growing voter dissatisfaction, but the move only seemed to underscore the depth of the underlying grievances. Voters felt that the leadership change was too little, too late, and it did not address the real problems plaguing the state, including unemployment, governance failures, and systemic corruption.
Unemployment, in particular, was a glaring failure of the BJP government. The party had made bold promises to create 2 lakh jobs in its manifesto, but by the end of its tenure, nearly 1.84 lakh vacancies remained unfilled. This left the state's unemployment rate at a staggering 9% in 2021-22—more than twice the national average of 4.1%. The inability to generate employment opportunities caused significant frustration among the youth, who felt abandoned by the ruling party. Compounding this issue was the recruitment scandal that emerged within the Haryana Public Service Commission. The discovery of over Rs 3 crore in connection to fraudulent activities within the commission led to the cancellation of 47 competitive exams, further damaging the BJP’s credibility. This scandal gave the opposition Congress ample ammunition to criticize the BJP's governance, exposing the ruling party’s inability to deliver on its promises and undermining public trust in its leadership.
The BJP's support base, traditionally strong in urban areas, also saw a sharp decline during this election cycle. Urban voters, who had previously been instrumental in the party’s electoral success, showed signs of disillusionment and apathy towards the party's governance. A significant portion of these voters opted not to cast their ballots this time, leading to a substantial drop in voter turnout. Of the two crore eligible voters in the state, only one crore turned up to vote, signaling a lack of enthusiasm for the BJP and highlighting the party's failure to retain its core urban electorate.
One of the most controversial aspects of the BJP’s governance in Haryana was its push for e-governance reforms. Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar’s administration introduced various online platforms, such as the Parivar Pahchan Patra (PPP) and Meri Fasal Mera Byora, to reduce corruption and improve service delivery. However, the implementation of these reforms was fraught with problems. Many residents faced issues accessing these online portals due to poor internet connectivity and technical glitches. As a result, large sections of the population were unable to avail themselves of government schemes, leading to widespread dissatisfaction. Instead of streamlining services, the e-governance initiatives alienated voters and fueled frustration, particularly in rural areas where digital access remains limited. What was meant to be a reform to curb corruption ended up being seen as an ineffective and poorly executed project that increased the public's sense of alienation.
In addition to these governance failures, the BJP also suffered from a credibility gap due to its numerous unfulfilled promises. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, the party made several ambitious announcements, such as paying Minimum Support Price (MSP) on 24 crops, providing a 10% horizontal reservation for Agniveers, and offering interest-free loans. However, many of these promises were seen as last-minute efforts to win over voters, and they were never fully implemented. The public perceived these initiatives as empty gestures designed to boost the BJP’s electoral chances rather than genuine attempts to address the state’s pressing issues. This further eroded the party’s trust among the electorate, particularly in rural areas where promises related to agriculture and employment were critical.
The introduction of the Parivar Pahchan Patra in 2020 was another source of contention. While the BJP government claimed the initiative would help streamline benefits to families, it was plagued by issues from the outset. Of the 72 lakh families registered under the program, only 68 lakh were verified, leading to discrepancies in the distribution of benefits such as old-age pensions. Furthermore, the lack of adequate infrastructure to support the initiative resulted in long queues at PPP centers and widespread frustration. Poor internet connectivity further compounded the issue, with many residents unable to access the necessary portals, rendering the system ineffective for a large portion of the population.
As the exit polls suggest a strong resurgence for the Congress party, it appears that the BJP's missteps over the past decade have paved the way for a potential shift in power in Haryana. The combination of high unemployment, governance failures, urban disillusionment, and unfulfilled promises has left the electorate eager for change. The Congress, having been out of power for ten years, seems to have successfully capitalized on the BJP’s failures, positioning itself as the alternative for voters seeking a new direction for the state. If the final election results align with the exit poll predictions, the BJP’s decline in Haryana may mark the end of its quest for a third consecutive term and signal a return to power for the Congress in one of India’s most politically significant states.
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