Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and other members of his party running for the U.S. Senate have recently intensified their rhetoric, blaming immigrants for the rising costs of housing across the United States. Despite their claims, an in-depth examination of economic data and independent research suggests that the impact of immigration on housing prices is, in fact, quite limited. This narrative has become particularly prominent as Trump seeks to exploit the issue of housing costs—a significant concern for many U.S. voters—as part of his broader immigration agenda, which has long been a cornerstone of his political platform.
In recent polling conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, unaffordable housing emerged as the second-biggest economic concern among registered voters, cited by nearly one in three respondents. This concern ranks just behind worries about income lagging behind inflation, underscoring the urgency with which voters view the housing crisis. With the November 5 presidential election approaching, Trump has seized upon the issue of housing costs to bolster his argument for stricter immigration policies, characterizing it as a direct consequence of rising immigrant populations.
At a rally in Arizona, Trump asserted, “Immigration is driving housing costs through the roof,” a statement that encapsulates his position. Standing before a backdrop emblazoned with the slogan “Make housing affordable again,” Trump’s rhetoric reflects a broader trend within the Republican Party, which has sought to link immigration directly to economic hardships faced by American citizens. Kari Lake, a Republican Senate candidate from Arizona, reinforced this message during an interview, claiming, “It’s just basic common sense. These people have to live somewhere, and this is basic supply and demand.” Similarly, Eric Hovde, another Republican Senate candidate in Wisconsin, echoed these sentiments by suggesting that closing the border would alleviate economic pressures related to housing availability and healthcare access for American citizens.
However, while such arguments resonate with a segment of the electorate, a growing body of academic research reveals a much more complex relationship between immigration and housing markets. Experts indicate that the influence of immigration on housing prices is relatively minor. For instance, studies show that a 1% increase in a city’s population typically results in a corresponding increase in rents and housing prices by approximately the same percentage. Yet, the overarching dynamics affecting housing markets reveal that the primary drivers of soaring housing costs stem from other, more significant factors.
One major factor contributing to the current housing crisis is the significant slowdown in construction that has occurred since the 2008 financial crisis. Over the past decade, the United States has built new homes and apartments at a rate about 30% slower than before the crisis, leaving the market approximately 1.5 million housing units short of what would be necessary to meet demand, according to estimates from Freddie Mac. Other forecasts, notably those from Moody's Analytics, suggest that the shortfall could be as high as 2.9 million units. This critical shortage of available housing has been compounded by inflation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seen average rents rise by roughly 23% compared to 2020, while home prices have soared by approximately 50% over the same five-year period.
Albert Saiz, director of the Urban Economics Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, emphasizes that inflation and shifting demand patterns—such as the increasing preference for larger homes due to the rise of remote work—are the primary contributors to the rising prices of homes and rents. Saiz argues, “Quantitatively, I don't think immigration even comes close to explaining what’s happened.” He suggests that other factors, including economic inflation and evolving work arrangements, play a far more significant role in driving the current housing crisis.
While some economists, such as Madeline Zavodny from the University of North Florida, acknowledge that immigration can exert some upward pressure on rents, they also highlight the important role that many immigrants play in the construction sector. Zavodny notes that migrants, particularly those who enter the country illegally, constitute a significant portion of the construction workforce, suggesting that they likely have a larger positive impact on housing supply than on demand. This influx of labor can contribute to increased housing availability, which may help to moderate prices overall.
Julia Gelatt of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute points out that the idea that immigrants are responsible for a nationwide housing shortage stems from a misconception that the number of houses available is fixed. “Immigrants fill housing units, but because immigrants work at high rates in construction and remodeling, they also help to increase the housing supply,” Gelatt explains, underlining the dual role that immigrants play in both occupying and building homes.
This understanding is particularly relevant in border states like Arizona, where immigration has been a top political issue for decades. Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist based in Arizona, notes that many voters are aware that immigrant laborers do not directly compete with them for housing within their price range. “Most voters are smart enough to know that ... immigrants who are day laborers are not moving into the home in my price range,” he observes. However, Marson also acknowledges that in an election season where cost of living is a significant concern, “fear-mongering doesn’t have to be true to be effective.”
As the election approaches, it becomes increasingly essential for voters to critically evaluate the claims being made by candidates and to understand the intricate factors contributing to the ongoing housing crisis. While immigration may be a convenient scapegoat for some politicians, the electorate must discern the realities of the housing market, which are shaped by a complex interplay of economic forces beyond simply the number of people living in the country. Engaging with comprehensive data and research can empower voters to make informed decisions about the issues that directly affect their lives, moving beyond simplistic narratives that fail to capture the multifaceted nature of the housing crisis.
