Maha Vikas Aghadi finalizes seat-sharing for Maharashtra elections. Sources

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in Maharashtra has successfully reached a tentative agreement on seat-sharing for the upcoming state Assembly elections, scheduled for November 20. The alliance, which brings together the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is gearing up to challenge the ruling Mahayuti coalition, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction, and the Ajit Pawar-led breakaway NCP faction. 

Under the proposed arrangement, the Congress is expected to field candidates in 105 to 110 constituencies, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest 90 to 95 seats, and the NCP (led by Sharad Pawar) will be allotted 75 to 80 seats. This distribution is seen as a critical step in ensuring a united front to maximize the MVA's chances in the election, especially after the alliance's positive performance in the Lok Sabha polls, where they secured a significant advantage by winning 30 seats, compared to 17 for the Mahayuti. Congress managed to win 13 out of the 17 seats it contested, while Shiv Sena (UBT) secured 9 out of 21 seats, signaling a promising trajectory for the opposition alliance.

However, internal disagreements over the distribution of seats initially surfaced, threatening the unity of the MVA alliance. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut and Congress leader Nana Patole engaged in a public spat, exchanging criticisms regarding the number of seats each party would contest. This led to concerns about the future of the alliance, as both leaders sought a larger share of constituencies for their respective parties. To resolve these issues, senior leaders from the MVA held an intensive nine-hour-long meeting at the Trident Hotel in South Mumbai. The discussions were described as tense but productive, and eventually, both Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders approached NCP chief Sharad Pawar to mediate and help broker a compromise.

Sharad Pawar, known for his political acumen and ability to negotiate tricky alliances, played a pivotal role in facilitating the agreement. His intervention was seen as critical in diffusing tensions between the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), ensuring that the alliance remains united as they approach the election. Pawar's role not only helped resolve the internal conflicts but also reaffirmed the strength of the MVA, which is banking on its combined power to challenge the well-established Mahayuti alliance.

The upcoming election for the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly will be conducted in a single phase, and the results are expected to be declared on November 23. The stakes are high for both the MVA and Mahayuti alliances. For the MVA, a victory would cement their hold on Maharashtra and set a strong precedent ahead of the national elections, further positioning them as a formidable opposition to the BJP and its allies. On the other hand, the Mahayuti, which came to power after the 2019 elections through a post-poll alliance between the BJP and factions of Shiv Sena and NCP, will be looking to consolidate its position and retain control over Maharashtra, one of India's most politically significant states.

The election is expected to be closely watched, as it will serve as a barometer of public sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections. Maharashtra, being India's second-most populous state, holds tremendous political importance, and the outcome here could have broader implications for national politics. The MVA alliance, by finalizing its seat-sharing agreement and resolving internal conflicts, is aiming to capitalize on any perceived weaknesses within the ruling Mahayuti coalition, especially in the wake of internal divisions within the NCP and Shiv Sena factions. 

With the election fast approaching, the campaign is expected to intensify, as both alliances prepare to battle it out for control of the state. The MVA's ability to maintain unity and execute an effective campaign will be critical in determining their chances of unseating the current government, while the Mahayuti will be relying on its strong organizational structure and leadership to hold onto power.