The BJP's efforts to push its "Naya Kashmir" vision, centered around peace, development, and integration, have encountered significant obstacles, as reflected in the latest exit polls predicting a poor performance for the party, especially in the Kashmir Valley. Despite the central government’s focus on transforming Jammu and Kashmir following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, the results show that the BJP’s narrative has failed to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate in the region.
One of the fundamental reasons behind the BJP's failure in the Valley lies in the deep-rooted resentment over the removal of Article 370, which had granted Jammu and Kashmir a special autonomous status. Although the BJP hailed the decision as a historic step toward unifying the country, many Kashmiris viewed it as a betrayal of their identity and a move that stripped them of their special rights. This sentiment of loss has continued to simmer despite the government's rhetoric of development and job creation. The BJP’s narrative of “Naya Kashmir” has not succeeded in addressing the emotional and political disconnect between the people of Kashmir and the central government.
In the years since the abrogation, the BJP has focused on security, counter-terrorism operations, and attracting investments in the region, promising a new era of stability and economic prosperity. However, this approach has been perceived by many in the Valley as heavy-handed, particularly regarding the suppression of dissent and free expression. The party’s strict security measures, including curfews and internet shutdowns, while aimed at curbing terrorism and maintaining law and order, have contributed to the perception of an authoritarian approach. This has fueled resentment among many Kashmiris, who feel that their voices are being silenced under the guise of national security. The fallout from this has been a growing distance between the BJP and the people of Kashmir, who continue to see the party as an outsider imposing its will on the region.
Adding to the BJP’s woes is the fact that its much-touted development agenda has not materialized in a meaningful way for the people of Kashmir. Despite numerous announcements about investment projects, infrastructure development, and job creation, the ground reality has not changed significantly for the region’s educated but unemployed youth. This lack of tangible benefits has led to growing frustration and disillusionment with the BJP's promises. In a region that has long been marred by conflict and economic stagnation, the failure to deliver on these promises has only deepened the sense of betrayal felt by many Kashmiris.
The regional parties, particularly the National Conference (NC) led by Farooq Abdullah and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) led by Mehbooba Mufti, have effectively tapped into this sense of loss and framed the BJP as being anti-Kashmiri. By emphasizing the importance of dignity and autonomy, these parties have managed to retain a stronghold in the Valley. The BJP’s attempt to counter this by forming alliances with local parties like the Apni Party and the People’s Conference has not borne fruit. These newer political entities, despite the BJP’s backing, have failed to emerge as significant challengers to the dominance of the NC and PDP, leaving the BJP with little to show for its efforts in expanding its influence in the Valley.
This failure to make electoral gains in the Valley is particularly damaging for the BJP’s broader ambitions in Jammu and Kashmir. The party has long aspired to have its first Chief Minister in the region, and a stronger performance in the Valley was seen as crucial to achieving this goal. However, the party's inability to contest or secure any parliamentary seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was an early indicator of its struggles in the region, and the current exit polls reinforce this trend. According to the CVoter exit poll, the BJP is expected to maintain its stronghold in Jammu, with 27 to 31 seats out of the 43 in that region, but its prospects in the Valley remain bleak, with little to no gains predicted in the 47-seat segment.
While the BJP’s emphasis on security and stability has found some traction in parts of the country, its approach in Kashmir has faced significant backlash. The central government’s move to abrogate Article 370 was initially seen as a bold and decisive step, but the long-term impact on the ground has been mixed. While the region has seen a reduction in incidents of terrorism and stone-pelting, the heavy presence of security forces and the frequent curbing of civil liberties have contributed to a sense of alienation among the local population.
The exit polls have projected that the National Conference-Congress alliance will likely emerge as the largest bloc in the upcoming assembly elections, with 40 to 48 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP’s failure to secure a strong presence in the Valley could potentially limit its ability to influence the formation of the government in Jammu and Kashmir. The Mehbooba Mufti-led PDP is expected to win between 6 and 12 seats, while other smaller parties and independent candidates could claim 6 to 11 seats, further complicating the BJP’s path to power.
Despite its efforts to project a vision of a "Naya Kashmir," the BJP has been unable to overcome the deep-seated political and emotional challenges that continue to define the region. The party’s inability to connect with the people of Kashmir on issues of identity, dignity, and autonomy, coupled with the failure of its development agenda, has significantly undermined its prospects in the Valley. As a result, the dream of the BJP having its first Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir remains elusive, with the party facing an uphill battle to maintain relevance in the region's complex political landscape.
