Omar Abdullah's relentless emotional campaign has propelled the National Conference (NC) to a commanding position in the recent Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, where the party has successfully won 42 seats, establishing itself as the largest party in the region. As the dust settles on the election results, Abdullah is now looking towards the Modi-led Central Government with an eye towards facilitating a stable and functional administration. This strategic shift toward a reconciliatory tone raises important questions about whether it can help bridge the historical divides that have long characterized the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
The outcome of the Assembly elections has yielded several undeniable facts that will shape governance in Jammu and Kashmir over the next five years. The NC's 42 seats, combined with the NC-Congress alliance, which totals 48 seats, positions them just above the halfway mark of 45 needed in the J&K Assembly. Notably, the NC secured most of its seats in the Valley, whereas the plains of Jammu decisively favored the BJP, which underscores the geographical and political divisions in the region. The Congress party's performance was particularly disappointing, managing to win only a single seat in the Jammu region.
It is crucial to note that Jammu and Kashmir operates as a Union Territory, meaning that the Central Government, through the Lieutenant Governor (L-G), retains significant control over the day-to-day functioning of the regional government. Abdullah, who is expected to take on the Chief Minister role, recognizes this dynamic and is leaning toward constructive engagement with the Central Government.Â
In his post-election remarks, Abdullah emphasized the need for cooperation with the Centre, stating, "We need to have coordination with the Centre, as many issues of J&K can't be resolved by fighting with the Centre." His commitment to establishing smooth relations with both the L-G and the Union Government is indicative of a shift in strategy aimed at ensuring effective governance in the region.
Interestingly, Abdullah remarked on the NC's potential to have performed well even without an alliance with Congress. "The alliance with the Congress wasn't about seats for us. We would have won the seats without the Congress, except probably one of them," he noted during an interview, further reinforcing the notion that the NC is confident in its independent strength.
A key priority for the newly formed government, as articulated by Abdullah, will be the restoration of statehood for Jammu and Kashmir. He expressed optimism about this objective, stating, "In that respect, I believe the PM is an honourable man; he has promised the people while campaigning here that statehood will be restored. The honourable Home Minister did the same." The Central Government has previously indicated that the restoration of statehood would occur "at an appropriate time," and Abdullah's comments signal a willingness to work collaboratively to achieve this goal.
Historically, the revocation of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, has been a contentious issue. Abdullah has indicated that the NC will not pursue confrontation on this matter at least for the time being. "Our political stance has never changed. It is foolish to expect restoration of Article 370 from the BJP. We will keep the issue alive," he stated. However, he also conveyed that the party would continue advocating for its restoration when conditions permit, indicating a long-term strategy rather than an immediate confrontation.
Abdullah’s pragmatic approach appears to stem from a recognition of the complex political landscape in Jammu and Kashmir. While he maintains that the NC will not suddenly embrace the BJP politically, he has drawn a distinction between the NC's political opposition to the BJP and the necessity of working together for effective governance. "I am drawing a distinction between the NC and the BJP on one side, and the J&K government and the Centre on the other," he elaborated.
The backdrop to these developments is the long-standing history of collaboration between the NC and BJP. The NC was a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, during which time Abdullah served as a minister. In a recent interview, veteran politician Ghulam Nabi Azad claimed that Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah had previously made calculated efforts to forge an alliance with the BJP in 2014. This historical context adds layers to the current dynamics, as both parties navigate their relationship in the wake of recent electoral results.
The NC attempted to form a government with the BJP even after the abrogation of Article 370, as noted by senior BJP leader Devendra Singh Rana, who previously served as a political advisor to Omar Abdullah. Rana stated that even after the scrapping of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, the NC reached out to the BJP to form a coalition, but these overtures were rebuffed by the BJP leadership. This history of attempted collaboration raises questions about the potential for future political rapprochement, especially as the BJP remains the second-largest party in the region.
The Assembly election results, announced on October 8, have highlighted the enduring Valley-plains divide, which has significant implications for governance in Jammu and Kashmir. While the NC has made significant inroads in the Valley, the BJP's gains in the Jammu region signify a need for a balanced approach to governance that addresses the concerns of both constituencies. Abdullah acknowledged this challenge, stating, "We also have the added challenge of giving a sense of belonging or sense of ownership to parts of J&K that didn't vote for the coalition at all. The plains of Jammu rejected the coalition, but they will have to feel a part of the government. You cannot ignore them for five years."
This reality makes the role of the BJP even more critical. The BJP's robust support in Jammu and its position as the second-largest party in the Assembly with 29 seats—plus five nominated members—affords it considerable leverage in the new political landscape. A coalition or collaboration between the NC and BJP could potentially help bridge the divide between the Valley and the plains, fostering a sense of inclusivity in governance that could benefit all constituents in the region.
While Abdullah’s inclination towards PM Modi for effective administrative functioning reflects a strategic pivot, it remains to be seen whether this pragmatic approach can lead to any significant political rapprochement between the NC and BJP in the long run. The complexities of Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape, combined with historical tensions and the need for balanced governance, create an environment where cooperation may be beneficial, yet fraught with challenges. Abdullah's leadership will be tested as he navigates these intricate dynamics while striving to deliver effective governance in a region characterized by its rich yet tumultuous history.
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