The upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, Russia, is highly anticipated, marking the first formal bilateral engagement between the two leaders in five years. Their last major meeting was during the informal summit in Mamallapuram, Tamil Nadu, in October 2019, just months before the relationship between the two nations soured due to the military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. That confrontation, which began in mid-2020, has lingered for four years, resulting in a significant strain on diplomatic, economic, and military ties between India and China.
The 2019 Mamallapuram summit was a moment of optimism, showcasing cultural diplomacy and personal rapport between Modi and Xi. The two leaders, clad in traditional Indian attire, were seen sipping coconut water while touring the iconic 7th-century monuments in Mahabalipuram, sending a strong message of cooperation. Modi and Xi discussed a wide range of topics, including trade, investment, and people-to-people exchanges. The summit concluded with both nations agreeing to designate 2020 as the "Year of India-China Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges." However, the global pandemic and the LAC standoff that followed in the summer of 2020 put a halt to those positive developments.
The Mamallapuram summit followed the Wuhan informal summit in 2018, which itself was a crucial diplomatic breakthrough after the 73-day military standoff in Doklam in 2017. In Wuhan, the informal nature of the meeting allowed the two leaders to engage in frank and wide-ranging discussions, including a lakeside walk, boat ride, and tea over discussions on strategic issues. China went out of its way to honor Modi, organizing several India-themed events, such as Chinese classical singers performing Bollywood songs, and even incorporating the colors of the Indian flag into menu cards at formal luncheons. The two leaders agreed to issue "strategic guidance" to their respective militaries to reduce tensions along the disputed border and improve communication to avoid conflicts like Doklam.
Despite the success of the Wuhan and Mamallapuram summits, the relationship between the two countries took a sharp downturn in 2020, when a violent clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley resulted in casualties on both sides. The standoff highlighted the deep-rooted border disputes between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, particularly in the Ladakh region. Diplomatic talks since then have only managed to de-escalate certain friction points, but the military presence remains significant along the LAC, with both sides building infrastructure and enhancing defense preparedness.
As Modi and Xi prepare to meet in Kazan, the stakes are high. The meeting comes after several rounds of military and diplomatic discussions aimed at resolving the standoff, with reports suggesting a potential breakthrough. However, the broader relationship between India and China remains complicated, with issues such as the border dispute, trade imbalances, and China's close ties with Pakistan adding layers of tension. India has also been increasing its strategic cooperation with the United States, Japan, and Australia through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which China views with suspicion.
The upcoming Kazan meeting is critical for several reasons. First, it will offer both leaders a chance to reset the trajectory of the bilateral relationship after years of friction. Second, it will be an opportunity for India and China to discuss other pressing global issues, such as climate change, economic recovery in the post-pandemic world, and regional security concerns in South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan. Third, the meeting could set the stage for potential cooperation on global platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where both nations are influential members.
Moreover, with China being India's largest trading partner, discussions on trade and economic cooperation are expected to take center stage. Despite political and military tensions, trade between India and China has continued to grow, though it remains heavily skewed in favor of China, with India running a large trade deficit. Modi may seek to address this imbalance, pushing for greater market access for Indian goods and services in China while also discussing ways to reduce India's dependence on Chinese imports, particularly in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals.
The two leaders may also explore opportunities for cooperation on global supply chains. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains, and India has been positioning itself as an alternative manufacturing hub to China. As nations look to diversify their supply chain dependencies, both leaders may discuss ways to cooperate or, at the very least, avoid conflict in this area.
Beyond economic and military issues, the Kazan meeting will also serve as a test of how much personal rapport can influence geopolitics. In both the Wuhan and Mamallapuram summits, the personal chemistry between Modi and Xi was emphasized, with the leaders sharing informal moments that were widely publicized. Whether the same camaraderie can be restored in Kazan, or whether the focus will shift to more pragmatic, hard-nosed negotiations, remains to be seen. The symbolic significance of their previous meetings may not be enough to bridge the current gap, but it could lay the groundwork for more meaningful dialogue in the future.
Ultimately, this bilateral meeting will be closely watched by the international community, as the relationship between India and China has far-reaching implications for regional and global stability. As two of the world's most populous countries and fastest-growing economies, their ability to manage tensions and cooperate on global challenges could have a significant impact on issues ranging from climate change to economic recovery and regional security in Asia. The Kazan meeting represents a critical moment in this ongoing diplomatic saga, and its outcomes could shape the future of India-China relations for years to come.
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