Voting is currently underway in bypolls across 31 Assembly seats spread over 10 states, and this election is being closely watched as a critical test for the Congress party and the broader INDIA bloc, following their defeat in the recent Haryana elections. The bypolls also extend to the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in Kerala, where Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi is making her electoral debut. This marks a significant moment for both the Congress party and Gandhi herself, as her first foray into electoral politics is highly anticipated. The elections are not only pivotal for Congress and the INDIA alliance but are also seen as a crucial opportunity to gauge public sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections.Â
The bypolls are taking place across a wide geographic spread, with seven seats in Rajasthan, six in West Bengal, five in Assam, four in Bihar, three in Karnataka, and two in Madhya Pradesh, as well as one seat each in Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Kerala, and Meghalaya. An additional set of 14 bypolls in other states like Kerala, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh will be held on November 20, coinciding with the Maharashtra Assembly election. These results will provide critical feedback for both the Congress-led INDIA bloc and the ruling BJP, which seeks to bolster its position ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. A strong showing in the bypolls would be key for the INDIA bloc, especially as a victory in Maharashtra and Jharkhand would help restore confidence within the alliance and counter any concerns raised by the recent setbacks. For the BJP, wins in Maharashtra and Jharkhand would help address any uncertainties following the Haryana election result.
In Rajasthan, the bypolls are taking place in seven Assembly constituencies, including prominent areas such as Jhunjhunu, Dausa, and Ramgarh. Of these seven, four were previously held by the Congress, while the rest were under the control of smaller parties like the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Bharat Adivasi Party. The Dausa bypoll is of particular interest as it pits BJP’s Kirodi Lal Meena’s brother, Jagmohan Meena, against Congress’s Deen Dayal. This election holds the potential for the BJP to recover some of the ground it lost in the recent general elections, where the party faced significant challenges. The performance in Dausa could give a clear indication of the BJP’s ability to reclaim its foothold in Rajasthan, especially after losing key seats in the 2023 elections.
In West Bengal, the polls are being conducted for six Assembly seats. The Trinamool Congress (TMC), which had dominated the 2021 Assembly elections, is once again facing a challenge from multiple fronts, with the BJP, Left Front, and Congress all contesting these seats. Among these, the Madarihat seat, which was held by the BJP, is a significant battleground. The TMC’s ability to maintain its dominance in this region will be a crucial signal of its continued influence in West Bengal, especially as it faces growing competition from both national and regional parties.
Assam’s by-polls are being held across five seats. The initial turnout has been relatively modest, but the contest remains important as Congress has fielded its own candidates, particularly after disagreements within the INDIA bloc on seat-sharing arrangements. Behali, in particular, has garnered attention due to internal party dynamics and the high stakes for the Congress in securing a strong showing. The Assam bypolls will be closely watched to assess the level of support for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who has emphasized the importance of voter participation, urging people to make their voices heard in shaping their constituencies' development.
Bihar’s bypolls are crucial for the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), consisting of the RJD, Left parties, and Congress. The alliance had secured victories in the previous elections, and maintaining its stronghold in Ramgarh, Tarari, Imamganj, and Belaganj is essential for its future prospects in the state. However, the presence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is making its electoral debut, adds a new layer of competition. The performance of Kishor’s party will be a key indicator of his influence in Bihar’s evolving political landscape.
In Karnataka, the bypolls in three constituencies are seeing intense scrutiny, especially in Channapatna, where JD(S) leader Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, is contesting. A victory for Nikhil Kumaraswamy would not only bolster JD(S)'s position in Karnataka’s political framework but could also indicate a shift in voter sentiment ahead of the 2024 elections. The outcome will likely shape the future trajectory of the JD(S), which continues to play a pivotal role in the state’s coalition politics.
Madhya Pradesh’s bypolls in the Budhni and Vijaypur seats are drawing significant attention, particularly the Budhni seat, which has long been considered a stronghold of former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. His election to the Lok Sabha and subsequent appointment as the Union Agriculture Minister have created a shift in the political landscape, making the bypolls an important test for both the BJP and the Congress in the state.
With so many regions and political dynamics at play, the ongoing bypolls are more than just a local election. They are a crucial test of the national parties' electoral strength and their preparedness for the upcoming general elections. The results could provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, help parties adjust their strategies, and give a clear indication of what might be expected when the full 2024 election battle kicks off. Each seat, whether contested by the Congress, BJP, or smaller parties, is being closely analyzed not only for its immediate outcome but for its long-term political implications.
Â
