Maharashtra's latest Assembly election, conducted in a single phase, has become a focal point of Indian politics, drawing nationwide interest due to its potentially transformative implications for state and national governance. The ruling Mahayuti alliance, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde’s faction of the Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s breakaway Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction, is currently anticipated to lead with 112 seats out of the 288 Assembly seats. This positions them slightly ahead of the opposition coalition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which combines the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The crucial halfway threshold stands at 145 seats, and with 61 seats currently classified as too close to call, the final outcome remains precariously balanced.
In the key battleground of Mumbai, the Mahayuti alliance is projected to have a slight advantage, potentially securing 17 out of the region’s 36 seats. The MVA, despite a strong grassroots presence, is estimated to win 10 seats, while the fate of 8 seats remains uncertain. This is a pivotal urban area that historically plays a crucial role in Maharashtra’s political landscape, not only as the state's financial hub but also as a barometer of urban sentiments. In the Konkan region, Mahayuti’s influence is expected to solidify with 20 seats, leaving MVA at 8, while another 9 seats are closely contested. The Konkan is known for its unique political dynamics, often reflecting a blend of local issues and state-wide narratives.
In Marathwada, a region often swayed by agrarian concerns and water scarcity issues, Mahayuti is expected to narrowly lead with 20 out of 47 seats, while the MVA may secure 14. The remaining 13 seats are too tight to predict, signaling intense local battles influenced by rural development agendas and regional leadership. North Maharashtra, historically a swing region, shows Mahayuti potentially ahead with 18 seats out of 36, while MVA may claim 9, with 8 seats hanging in the balance.
The Vidarbha region, with its unique socio-economic challenges and history of advocacy for a separate state, may see the MVA edging out Mahayuti, potentially winning 23 seats to Mahayuti’s 18. This region's voters often prioritize issues like farmers’ welfare and development, and the MVA's slight lead here could indicate successful engagement with these critical concerns. Similarly, in West Maharashtra, a traditional Congress and NCP stronghold, the MVA is predicted to lead with 34 seats, while Mahayuti trails with 25. Seven seats in this agriculturally rich and politically influential region are still too close to call.
The potential impact of smaller parties and independents cannot be overlooked. Other parties are projected to win 11 seats across different regions—one each in Mumbai and North Maharashtra, two in Konkan, three in Vidarbha, and four in West Maharashtra. This indicates that, while the major alliances dominate the landscape, local factors and individual candidates play a notable role in specific constituencies.
In terms of projected vote share, Mahayuti is estimated to capture 41% of the overall vote, while MVA closely follows at 40%. This marginal difference underscores the competitive nature of the election, where every percentage point could translate into significant seat shifts. Smaller parties are expected to hold a substantial 19% share, reflecting the diversity of Maharashtra’s political landscape, where regional parties and independent candidates maintain relevance amid the dominance of national alliances. Regionally, Mahayuti shows a strong presence with a 49% vote share in Mumbai, 45% in Konkan, and around 40% in other key regions, while MVA holds significant sway with over 40% in Vidarbha and West Maharashtra.
Gender demographics offer further insights into the political landscape. According to the C-Voter survey, 41.9% of women voters are leaning towards Mahayuti, compared to 36.4% for MVA. This indicates a notable endorsement of the incumbent alliance’s policies, particularly in areas like women’s welfare and security. Among male voters, the competition is tighter, with 43.3% backing MVA over Mahayuti’s 40.3%, suggesting a more divided male electorate.
Exit polls from multiple agencies largely align, predicting a second term for Mahayuti. The average of three major exit polls suggests a comfortable win for Mahayuti, with the alliance expected to secure around 158 seats—comfortably above the halfway mark. Matrize projects a range of 150-170 seats for Mahayuti, while MVA’s prospects are forecasted between 110 and 130. Times Now-JVC is similarly optimistic for Mahayuti, giving them 159 seats, compared to MVA’s 116. Chanakya’s forecast places Mahayuti slightly above the halfway point, with an expected tally of 152-160 seats, suggesting the alliance’s welfare schemes, particularly the "Ladki Bahin Yojana," played a crucial role in swaying voters.
PMarq’s projections hint at a much closer contest, predicting 137-157 seats for Mahayuti and 126-146 for MVA. This underscores the uncertainty of Maharashtra's political climate, where regional issues, coalition dynamics, and the appeal of individual candidates can significantly impact the final outcome.
Maharashtra’s political story in recent years has been one of dramatic shifts and unexpected alliances. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP and the unified Shiv Sena contested together, winning 161 seats (105 for BJP and 56 for Shiv Sena). However, a fallout over the Chief Minister’s role led to the formation of the MVA government, as Shiv Sena allied with the Congress and NCP. The subsequent split within the Shiv Sena and the rebellion by Eknath Shinde, who allied with the BJP to form a new government, marked a turning point in the state’s political landscape. The year 2023 saw another dramatic shift when Ajit Pawar, nephew of NCP’s Sharad Pawar, led a factional rebellion to join Mahayuti, creating a dual leadership structure with Devendra Fadnavis as Deputy Chief Minister.
The current election reflects deeper battles beyond mere seat numbers. It’s a contest over political legacies, particularly between the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which claims the mantle of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, and Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT), which seeks to preserve its traditional base. The two NCP factions, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar, are also vying for dominance, adding another layer of complexity to the election. If Mahayuti's projected win materializes, it would not only reinforce Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national leadership but also solidify the BJP’s position in Maharashtra, potentially providing a stronger foothold ahead of upcoming national elections. For the MVA, a strong performance—even if it falls short of forming the government—would signify a resilient opposition capable of challenging the ruling alliance in the future.
