On September 17, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated his 74th birthday, former U.S. President and Republican candidate Donald Trump made a notable, if unexpected, gesture by announcing his intent to meet Modi during the latter's U.S. visit for the Quad Summit. Although the meeting ultimately did not take place, Trump’s announcement highlighted the unique camaraderie shared between the two leaders, despite their at times complex relationship. This bond was underscored recently when PM Modi became one of the first world leaders to congratulate “my friend” Trump on his recent presidential victory, sharing photos from their high-profile rallies in Gujarat and Texas. Their relationship reflects not only political alignment but also a mutual respect that has strengthened India-U.S. ties over the years.
Trump’s quick post-election call to Modi, along with early calls to Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, signaled the priority Trump places on ties with these nations. The absence of immediate outreach to NATO countries has been noted by analysts as indicative of Trump’s unique foreign policy priorities. During the call, Trump praised Modi as a “magnificent man” whom “the whole world loves,” underscoring the personal warmth that has characterized their rapport. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia policy expert, remarked that while trade tensions might emerge with a Trump administration, the ideological convergence between Modi and Trump is likely to provide a steadying force in U.S.-India relations.
As India contemplates the implications of Trump’s return to the White House, there is optimism that ties will be strengthened, particularly in defense and counter-terrorism. Modi and Trump have shared common views on global terrorism and Pakistan's role in it, with Trump having suspended $300 million in U.S. aid to Pakistan and designating Jaish-e-Mohammad’s Masood Azhar as a global terrorist after the 2019 Pulwama attack. India's hope is that Trump’s firm stance against Pakistan will continue in his second term, aligning with Modi’s approach to regional security.
A second Trump term could also bring greater alignment on global issues like peace initiatives in the Middle East and Ukraine. Trump’s vow to end wars rather than start new conflicts mirrors Modi’s principle that “this is not an era of war.” For India, which has long advocated for peace, this aspect of Trump’s foreign policy is a promising alignment that could lead to diplomatic support on international platforms.
One of the most anticipated areas of cooperation under Trump’s potential second term is defense. India and the U.S. saw substantial progress in military ties during Trump’s first term, particularly after agreements that allowed India access to advanced communication and encrypted defense technologies. Trump’s emphasis on defense cooperation contributed to the revival of the Quad—an alliance between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia focused on countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. India, which has ongoing tensions with China, could benefit from the U.S.'s support in case of future flare-ups, particularly given the recent easing of the four-year border standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
While these aspects of Trump’s presidency could prove beneficial for India, there remain significant concerns, especially around trade and immigration. Trump’s “America First” agenda previously saw a hardline approach on trade with India, leading to increased tariffs and stricter immigration policies, notably affecting H-1B visas for Indian professionals. During his first term, H-1B visa denials rose from 6% to 24%, creating challenges for Indian tech talent looking to work in the U.S. Should Trump reinstate such protectionist policies, India must navigate these hurdles while balancing the strategic partnership.
Another concern is the ongoing Khalistan issue, which has strained relations between India and the current U.S. administration, particularly following the alleged plot against Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. India hopes that with Trump back in office, the focus on this issue may diminish, easing tensions over U.S. involvement in the case.
Trump’s previous administration also initiated significant steps that streamlined defense cooperation with India, removing bureaucratic barriers and securing crucial agreements allowing technology sharing. With China’s regional assertiveness in the South China Sea and growing influence in South Asia, India sees an opportunity to further solidify its defense collaboration with the U.S. through expanded Quad activities and expedited defense deals.
For India, Trump’s win presents both opportunities and challenges, and Modi’s rapport with him is seen as a major asset. However, India must also be prepared to manage potential roadblocks in trade, immigration, and technology transfer policies. The outcome of these discussions will shape the future of India-U.S. relations, balancing strategic alignment with pragmatic negotiation on areas of contention. As the two countries move forward, their leaders’ shared priorities and longstanding partnerships will continue to play a central role in navigating these complex dynamics.
