The 2016 election was a moment of surprise and disbelief for many, especially liberals who were convinced that Hillary Clinton’s path to the White House was secure. When she used the term “deplorable” to describe Trump’s supporters, she unknowingly helped cement a sense of division. While Clinton's supporters cheered her potential victory, few were paying attention to the grassroots concerns of ordinary working Americans, who were struggling with the economic uncertainties of their daily lives. A select few analysts, including the lead author of this piece, had warned that this very demographic, often ignored or mocked, could deliver a shocking surprise in the form of a Trump victory.
On election night, when Clinton’s campaign looked set to take charge, many were taken aback by Trump's unexpected triumph. What followed was a wave of disbelief from the media and Clinton's liberal supporters, many of whom simply could not fathom how someone with Trump's controversial past could secure the presidency. "How could a fascist, a convicted felon, win the presidential election?" they asked. The frustration and confusion stemmed from the fact that, for many, Trump's victory was a repudiation of the liberal, cosmopolitan values that had long been associated with America's elite political establishment. Yet, as history shows, and as data reveals, this result was the manifestation of deeper, often overlooked dynamics within American society.
Fast forward to the 2024 election, and liberals once again find themselves bewildered and questioning the state of the nation. The question on their lips is, once again, “How could this happen?” But in order to understand why Trump has found success once more, one needs to step back and observe three crucial aspects of America’s political landscape. First, America is more polarized than it has ever been. The divisions between urban and rural, educated and uneducated, the coastal elites and the heartland have become chasms. This division mirrors, in some ways, the growing social fragmentation seen in other countries, such as India, where polarization is similarly on the rise. While India’s polarization has sparked debates about the impact of religious and caste divides, the American polarization is driven by broader political ideologies and socioeconomic concerns.
Second, the issues of livelihood and safety remain at the forefront of the American public's concerns, consistently eclipsing abstract discussions about democracy, rights, and ideology. This dynamic was famously captured by Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.” His focus on economic hardship and the real struggles of American working-class people resonated with voters, while George H.W. Bush's focus on foreign policy, particularly the successful Gulf War, was overshadowed by domestic issues. In 2024, the economy is again the central concern for voters, as working Americans, especially in rural areas and post-industrial regions, continue to struggle with inflation, rising housing costs, and wage stagnation. Although the Biden administration emphasized progressive social policies, many voters felt these did little to address their immediate needs.
Third, the changing demographics of political support have contributed to the shifting dynamics of American politics. In the past, certain ethnic identity groups—particularly African Americans, Latinos, and Asians—were considered strong allies of the Democratic Party. However, in recent years, these groups have begun to shift towards the Republican Party. In 2024, 45% of Latino voters and 38% of Asian voters cast their ballots for Trump. More significantly, among younger and male Latino voters, Trump's support soared to 60%. This reflects a broader trend seen in countries like India, where political parties that once catered to specific social groups have expanded their base to include diverse communities, ranging from urban elites to marginalized castes and tribal groups. The shift in voting patterns is a testament to the growing cross-ethnic appeal of Trump’s message.
The CNN exit poll conducted after the 2024 election is a sobering reflection of just how divided the country has become. The poll paints a vivid picture of the ideological and emotional chasm between Trump and Harris supporters. A stark difference emerges when examining the reasons people voted for their respective candidates. While 93% of Trump’s supporters expressed fear and opposition to Kamala Harris becoming president, only 6% voted for Trump primarily to block her candidacy. On the flip side, a sizable portion—more than 30%—of Harris’s supporters cast their votes with the sole intention of preventing Trump’s return to the White House. This stark contrast highlights not just political divisions but also the deep emotional polarization that defines the current political moment in the U.S.
On issues of immigration, the divide is even more pronounced. While 76% of Harris supporters believe illegal immigrants should be given a chance at citizenship, an overwhelming 86% of Trump supporters support deportation. This divide encapsulates the larger cultural and economic fears that underpin Trump’s base. For many, the growing influx of illegal immigration has come to symbolize a threat to their sense of national identity and economic security. While crime related to illegal immigrants may be statistically small in the broader context of the U.S., it has become a rallying cry for Trump supporters who feel that their country is being overrun by people they perceive as taking resources and jobs away from American citizens.
In terms of policy, many analysts believed that the abortion issue could be a major factor in swaying women’s votes, but as the election results came in, it became clear that economic and safety concerns were more pressing to voters. The struggles of everyday Americans, including the challenges of paying for basic necessities like groceries, fuel, and housing, have been compounded by the mismanagement of the economy under the Biden administration. Despite the administration’s focus on social issues, the failure to address the economic hardships faced by the middle and working class was a decisive factor in Trump's win. The CNN exit poll revealed that a large percentage of Harris supporters—44%—were dissatisfied with the state of the country and its economic outlook. One in four said that inflation was causing them severe hardship. If voters were unhappy with the current state of the economy, it should have come as no surprise that they turned to Trump, whose messaging focused on economic revitalization and safety.
One of the most surprising aspects of Trump’s 2024 victory was not just that he won, but that he did so by securing the popular vote—a feat he failed to achieve in 2016 and 2020. Trump won a 51% share of the popular vote in 2024, marking a significant shift in Republican political fortunes. This time, Trump’s coalition was far more diverse than before, encompassing voters from a broad range of ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds. Historically, African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans have been solidly Democratic. But this time, a substantial portion of these groups backed Trump, signaling a shift away from traditional party lines. Much like India’s BJP, which has managed to expand its base to include a wide array of social groups, Trump has successfully broadened his appeal to reach a more diverse electorate.
Lastly, one of the most striking trends in the 2024 election results was the shift in support from working-class voters. Democrats have traditionally been seen as the party of the working class, but data from the exit poll reveals that it was Trump who garnered the support of voters earning less than $50,000 a year. Meanwhile, Harris, representing the Democratic elite, found greater support among voters earning more than $50,000 a year. This demographic shift suggests that the Democratic Party is increasingly seen as a party of elites, while Trump’s appeal remains strong among the working class, who see him as a champion of their economic and security concerns.
In conclusion, the 2024 election results are a reflection of broader trends in American society. Polarization, economic hardship, and demographic shifts have reshaped the political landscape in ways that many may still be struggling to fully understand. Trump's victory, despite all odds, is not just a triumph of one man, but a testament to the changing face of American politics—where identity, livelihood, and safety concerns have become the driving forces in shaping the electorate’s choices. It is a reminder that the political narrative is always evolving, and those who fail to adapt to these changes risk being left behind.
