The Maharashtra Assembly elections in Mumbai have become even more complex with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, positioning itself as a significant factor across the 36 Assembly seats in the city. Although the MNS refrained from participating in the recent 2024 Lok Sabha elections and instead offered unconditional support to the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), its current strategy in the Assembly race presents a direct challenge to the BJP and Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), who collectively dominate Mumbai’s political landscape.
The BJP is fielding candidates in 17 seats, while the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena is contesting 16 seats. However, the MNS’s decision to field candidates in 25 seats, including 22 in direct competition with either BJP or Shinde Sena nominees, introduces a new layer of complexity. This move could dilute the ruling coalition’s vote share, potentially providing an edge to the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition. MNS’s choice to enter these races also reflects a nuanced approach, with the party targeting certain constituencies and avoiding direct challenges against influential BJP figures, possibly to avoid alienating potential allies or influential voters within the NDA.
A particular focus of interest has been the high-stakes contests in Mahim and Worli, where the MNS has strategically fielded prominent candidates. In Mahim, Amit Thackeray, Raj Thackeray’s son, is challenging Sada Sarvankar of the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, setting up an intense three-way contest. Similarly, in Worli, MNS candidate Sandeep Deshpande faces formidable competition against Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray and Shinde Sena's Milind Deora, making the seat a flashpoint in the election. These contests are likely to draw significant public and media attention, given the symbolic and political weight they carry.
Despite the widespread MNS presence, the party has abstained from challenging certain high-profile BJP leaders in the city. Figures like Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar (Colaba), Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar (Bandra West), state BJP treasurer Mihir Kotecha (Mulund), and Mangal Prabhat Lodha (Malabar Hill) are not facing MNS candidates, indicating a selective approach. This may be a strategic decision by the MNS to avoid antagonizing key BJP leaders while focusing on contested seats that could influence its bargaining power and public visibility.
The full list of MNS-contested seats includes key areas like Mahim, Worli, Magathane, Kurla, Chandivali, Bhandup, and Vikhroli, all of which are expected to witness closely contested races. Analysts believe the MNS’s presence in these constituencies could affect the vote shares of both the ruling Mahayuti and the MVA opposition, potentially altering the outcome in seats where margins are traditionally narrow.
This heightened competition comes as the Maharashtra Assembly elections are scheduled for November 20, with vote counting set for November 23. The 2019 Assembly elections saw the BJP secure 105 seats, Shiv Sena 56, and Congress 44, while in 2014, the BJP had won 122 seats, Shiv Sena 63, and Congress 42. The 2024 elections could reflect a different configuration if the MNS succeeds in drawing support from voters who previously backed the BJP or Shiv Sena, reshaping the city’s political landscape and testing the resilience of the Mahayuti coalition. The influence of MNS’s campaign, particularly its targeted challenges and strategic absences, will be pivotal in determining how Mumbai’s electorate responds to this shifting political equation.
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