Five months ago, Devendra Fadnavis faced a challenging moment in his political career when he offered to resign, shouldering the blame for the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. Now, Fadnavis finds himself back in the spotlight, emerging as one of the pivotal figures behind the BJP-led Mahayuti’s landslide victory in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The other significant figure in this political saga is Eknath Shinde, the current Chief Minister and leader of the Shiv Sena, who has also played a crucial role in Mahayuti’s success. With the coalition poised to secure an overwhelming majority, the key question on everyone’s mind is: who will be the next Chief Minister?
The Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena, and other partners, has a clear edge in the Assembly elections, leading in 220 out of the 288 seats, while their rival, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), trails with leads in only 57 seats. Within the BJP’s camp, Fadnavis is winning comfortably in his stronghold of Nagpur South West, while Shinde commands a solid lead in Kopri-Pachpakhadi. These electoral gains have intensified the debate over who deserves the Chief Minister's post, with many pointing to Fadnavis’s strategic groundwork as a major contributor to the coalition’s success.
Devendra Fadnavis's leadership in this election has earned praise for his relentless campaign efforts, coalition management, and focus on consolidating key voter bases. Ankit Jain, reflecting on X (formerly Twitter), emphasized Fadnavis's impact: “Devendra Fadnavis ran a ground campaign for the ages, pacified rebels... did breathless campaign for two months... Devendra Fadnavis got BJP to perform the best in Vidhansabha elections." Similarly, political analyst Rajdeep Sardesai described him as the "frontrunner" for the chief ministerial role.
However, Eknath Shinde's strong performance should not be overlooked. His leadership has solidified his standing as a major Maratha figure, and he has been credited with reinvigorating the Shiv Sena as the true heir to Bal Thackeray’s legacy. Under Shinde's leadership, the Shiv Sena has a commendable 81% strike rate in the seats they contested, and his initiatives, such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana, have been instrumental in gaining support from women voters.
The dynamics within the Mahayuti coalition are complex. Home Minister Amit Shah, speaking earlier this month, made it clear that the decision on the Chief Minister would be made collectively by the alliance partners after the election results. The BJP’s remarkable electoral performance, winning 124 out of the 149 seats it contested—a strike rate of 83%—has bolstered Fadnavis’s position, leading to increased calls within the party for him to reclaim the Chief Minister’s chair. Supporters cite his previous tenure from 2014 to 2019 and his steadying role as Deputy Chief Minister under Shinde’s leadership as evidence of his suitability for the top job.
Yet, the unity and stability of the Mahayuti coalition remain paramount. Shinde's Shiv Sena is willing to accept a BJP Chief Minister, indicating that coalition harmony is a priority. But tensions could arise if the decision is perceived as undermining Shinde's contributions. The history between the two leaders adds another layer of intrigue; Fadnavis stepped aside in favor of Shinde after the latter’s dramatic break from Uddhav Thackeray led to the fall of the MVA government, showing Fadnavis's pragmatic approach to coalition politics.
The BJP's focus on consolidating Hindu votes, as seen in Fadnavis’s strategic targeting of constituencies like Dhule, has paid dividends, as evidenced by the electoral results. Fadnavis’s rhetoric, highlighting the potential for communal divides, appears to have resonated with key voter segments, leading to a notable consolidation of Hindu support.
Both leaders bring significant strengths to the table. Fadnavis is seen as a seasoned administrator with a knack for managing the complexities of coalition politics, while Shinde has proven his ability to rally grassroots support, particularly among the Maratha community. The decision over the Chief Minister's post will likely depend on negotiations within the Mahayuti leadership, where political calculations will weigh heavily.
With BJP supporters already calling for Fadnavis to return as Chief Minister, citing his campaign effectiveness and proven track record, the pressure is mounting. Kishore K Swamy’s comment on X captures this sentiment: “Devendra Fadnavis... is finally back as CM of Maharashtra. That’s a real politician." Yet, any such move will require careful handling to maintain the alliance's unity and avoid alienating key partners, including Shinde and his supporters.
As the election results solidify, the spotlight remains on the Mahayuti's decision-making process. The choice of Chief Minister could shape the future of Maharashtra’s politics and set the tone for how the coalition will govern the state. With Fadnavis’s strong track record and Shinde’s rising influence, the Mahayuti has two capable leaders—but only one can wear the crown.
