The tragic stampede at New Delhi Railway Station on February 15, which claimed 18 lives, mostly women and children, raises numerous unanswered questions. However, available information points to at least five warning signs that should have prompted action from the Railways. A larger concern remains—whether any authority actively monitors these indicators in real-time to prevent such disasters.
The tragedy also exposed failures in local intelligence gathering, as the Railways alone cannot manage sudden surges in passenger numbers. While this aspect requires a separate discussion, the immediate focus is on what the Railways overlooked and whether the disaster could have been averted.
Every railway station has a limited capacity for handling crowds. Shouldn’t the authorities have restricted the surge in passengers at the station? The stampede occurred on the Ajmeri Gate side of the station, where platforms 16, 15, 14, 13, and others serve trains heading east, including those bound for Prayagraj, where the Maha Kumbh is taking place.
A combination of factors led to the overcrowding—an increase in unreserved ticket sales, social media warnings about congestion, the clustering of multiple Prayagraj-bound trains on adjacent platforms, and confusing last-minute announcements. If these red flags had been addressed, the tragedy could have been prevented.
1. SURGE IN TICKET SALES—2,600 EXTRA TICKETS SOLD
In the hours leading up to the stampede, unreserved ticket sales spiked. A railway inquiry found that around 1,500 unreserved tickets were being issued per hour for Prayagraj. On an average evening, the station records around 7,000 ticket sales between 6 pm and 8 pm, but this number rose to over 9,600 that day—an increase of 2,600.
This sharp rise in passengers led to extreme overcrowding on the Ajmeri Gate side platforms, leaving little space for movement. A railway official suggested that had the administration recognized this pattern earlier, it could have taken preventive measures.
2. MULTIPLE TRAINS TO PRAYAGRAJ BUNCHED UP TOGETHER
As more passengers crowded the station, several trains—both regular and special—were stationed at the same set of platforms. These platforms typically experience heavy footfall, particularly during festival seasons.
On the night of the stampede, platform 14 had passengers waiting for the Magadh Express to Bihar, while platform 13 was packed with those waiting for the Swatantrata Senani Express to Jaynagar. Both these trains pass through Prayagraj. However, the Swatantrata Senani Express was delayed until midnight, forcing many passengers to stay on the platform. Additionally, a special train to Prayagraj was announced to arrive at platform 12, creating further confusion.
The Delhi Police later explained that an announcement about a Prayagraj Special arriving at platform 16 misled many travelers who were supposed to board a different Prayagraj-bound train at platform 14. The misunderstanding, coupled with train delays, caused an uncontrolled surge of people, leading to the fatal stampede.
3. INSUFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF SECURITY PERSONNEL
Despite the swelling crowd, there were only about 60 Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel and 20 Delhi Police officers managing the entire station. Considering that New Delhi Railway Station sees around 5 lakh passengers daily—and up to 6 lakh during peak times—this number was clearly inadequate.
A railway official stated that had more personnel been deployed and announcements been made effectively, the situation could have been managed better.
4. EARLY WARNINGS IGNORED
The chaos at the station built up over several hours, yet no significant measures were taken to control the crowd. Many people took to social media to report the deteriorating conditions, highlighting overcrowded platforms and blocked coach entry.
A passenger, Jayesh Acharya, posted on X (formerly Twitter) at 8:14 pm about the overcrowded conditions on platform 12, mentioning last-minute platform changes. A coolie at the station later confirmed that the situation worsened after the Swatantrata Senani and Bhubaneswar Rajdhani Expresses were delayed.
Despite multiple signs of trouble, authorities failed to intervene in time.
5. KUMBH-RELATED RAILWAY SURGE WAS EXPECTED
Large socio-religious gatherings like the Maha Kumbh significantly increase passenger movement, especially on routes passing through Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Delhi. The Indian Railways had announced plans to run 13,000 trains—10,000 regular and 3,000 special—during the Kumbh Mela.
Although crowd management strategies, such as designated entry and exit routes, were put in place at various stations, the New Delhi Railway Station stampede indicates these measures were either insufficient or poorly implemented.
This raises concerns about real-time crowd monitoring and whether advanced technologies, including AI, were used to manage the situation.
Past incidents have shown that overcrowding at railway stations can lead to disasters. In 2013, a similar tragedy at Allahabad Railway Station during the Kumbh Mela left 42 people dead. Despite lessons from history and clear warning signs on the day of the stampede, timely intervention could have saved 18 lives.
