he upcoming Delhi Assembly election on February 5, 2025, has evolved into a closely contested battle between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).ecent developments suggest that the AAP, which previously enjoyed a commanding position, now faces significant challenges. Shifts in Voter Sentiment
recent survey by C Voter indicates a decline in support for AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal as the preferred chief ministerial candidate.urrently, 46% of respondents favor Kejriwal, a notable decrease from the nearly 70% who supported him five years ago.n contrast, BJP's Manoj Tiwari is preferred by 15% of voters. dditionally, the survey reveals that 44% of respondents express dissatisfaction with the current government and desire change, while 49% wish to retain it.his contrasts with 2020 figures, where only 27% sought change, and 70% were satisfied with the AAP administration. Factors Influencing the Election
Several elements contribute to the tightening race:
- Anti-Incumbency: fter a decade in power, the AAP faces natural anti-incumbency sentiments.
- Corruption Allegations: ncidents like the liquor scam and the "Sheesh Mahal" controversy have tarnished AAP's anti-corruption image.
- Municipal Performance: ith the AAP now controlling the Delhi Municipal Corporation, unresolved issues such as garbage management and infrastructure deficiencies have become focal points. Impact of the Union Budget
he recent Union Budget appears to have influenced voter preferences, especially among the lower middle class.upport for the BJP in this demographic increased from 37% to 42% post-budget. In comparison, AAP's support declined from 56% to 48%.he BJP's promises of economic incentives and benefits have resonated with these voters. Demographic Support
he AAP continues to enjoy strong backing from low-income groups, Dalits, Muslims, and residents of informal settlements.or instance, 67% of illiterate voters support the AAP, compared to 24% for the BJP.mong housewives, 57% favor the AAP, while 33% support the BJP. Key Determinants
The election outcome may hinge on:
- Women's Votes: oth parties are vying for female voters' support through promises of various benefits.
- Congress's Role: ny shift of minority votes towards the Congress could impact AAP's prospects.
- Voter Turnout: he BJP's success may depend on mobilizing its middle and upper-middle-class base, demographics that traditionally exhibit lower voter turnout. iven these dynamics, the Delhi Assembly election has transformed from a presumed AAP victory to a contest that is too close to call.he electorate's unpredictable nature, as evidenced in recent state and national elections, suggests that political analysts should brace for potential surprises when results are announced on February 8. navlistDelhi Assembly Election: AAP Faces Stiff Competition Amid Corruption Allegationsturn0news12,turn0news14
