The Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) crushing defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections has sparked quiet satisfaction within the Gujarat Congress, where the party has suffered repeated setbacks due to AAP’s emergence. Over the past five years, AAP’s political trajectory in Gujarat disrupted the traditional Congress-BJP contest, cutting into Congress’s vote share and indirectly aiding the BJP’s dominance. The ripple effects of AAP’s Delhi downfall are now being closely watched, particularly as Gujarat gears up for local body elections on February 16.
AAP’s influence in Gujarat gained traction after its resounding re-election in Delhi in 2020. The party aggressively expanded into the state, contesting local body elections in 2021. Its breakthrough came in the Surat Municipal Corporation polls, where it won 27 out of 120 seats while Congress was wiped out. The impact was even more pronounced in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections. Despite securing only five out of 182 seats, AAP garnered 12.92% of the vote share, cutting into Congress’s support base. Congress, which had won 77 seats in 2017, was reduced to 17, with its vote share plummeting by over 14 percentage points. This fragmentation of the opposition helped the BJP achieve a record 156-seat victory, even though its vote share rose by just 3.45%. The split votes led to 128 AAP and 41 Congress candidates losing their deposits, underscoring how AAP’s presence had weakened the broader anti-BJP front.
Congress’s woes did not end with the 2022 Assembly elections. In the past two years, defections to the BJP further eroded its strength. One AAP MLA and five Congress MLAs have switched allegiances, highlighting the fragility of both parties in the state. The Congress particularly suffered from AAP’s ability to attract sections of its traditional support base, notably Muslims and tribals. One of AAP’s most influential Gujarat MLAs, Chaitar Vasava, won the Dediapada (Scheduled Tribe) seat and significantly influenced at least five neighboring constituencies, damaging Congress’s prospects in the region. Meanwhile, high-profile AAP leaders like Isudan Gadhvi and Gopal Italia failed to win their respective seats, signaling AAP’s limited electoral reach.
Further complicating matters for Congress was the INDIA bloc’s seat-sharing arrangement during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As part of this alliance, Congress allowed AAP to contest from Bharuch and Bhavnagar, but AAP lost both seats. A veteran Congress leader in Bharuch noted that this partnership led to conflicting campaign messaging. Congress campaigned for AAP’s Lok Sabha candidate Chaitar Vasava, but now, just months later, it must oppose AAP in the upcoming local body elections. This inconsistency, the leader admitted, risks confusing Congress’s voter base, particularly in Muslim-majority regions.
With Gujarat’s municipal elections approaching, the timing of AAP’s debacle in Delhi could not be worse for the party. Congress leaders see AAP’s defeat as a potential game-changer in Gujarat politics, where the party’s recent electoral gains were largely fueled by its national image rather than strong grassroots support. AAP had managed to attract a significant number of Patidar youth disillusioned with both Congress and the BJP, especially in South Gujarat. The party recruited over a dozen leaders from the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS), a movement led by Hardik Patel. However, over the past three years, many of these leaders have drifted toward the BJP, including Patel himself, who is now a BJP MLA.
Historically, Gujarat has been a two-party battleground, with third-party challengers like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party failing to make an impact. AAP, despite its efforts, has struggled to build a strong organizational presence at the grassroots level. Until now, its success in Delhi and its image as a rising national party gave it credibility among sections of Gujarat’s electorate. But with its aura of invincibility in Delhi shattered, Congress believes AAP’s appeal will fade further, allowing it to regain lost ground.
However, whether AAP’s Delhi loss signals the beginning of its decline in Gujarat or pushes the party to redouble its efforts remains an open question. Congress sees an opportunity to capitalize on potential anti-incumbency sentiment against the BJP, but it must also contend with the organizational challenges that have plagued it in recent elections. With municipal polls just weeks away and larger elections in 2026, Gujarat’s political landscape is at a turning point. Whether AAP can remain relevant or if Congress can truly regain its footing will be tested in the coming months.
